Divisional round 2022 · January 22, 2023
Bengals at Bills, Divisional round 2022: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Bills 27–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Bills: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bills were 67% favorites.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 27 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Bengals about even · −24 Bills
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 8, Bills win 2.
- 1 CIN 37 BUF 10
- 2 CIN 36 BUF 17
- 3 CIN 27 BUF 13
- 4 CIN 33 BUF 21
- 5 CIN 27 BUF 17
- 6 CIN 23 BUF 17
- 7 CIN 17 BUF 13
- 8 CIN 19 BUF 17
- 9 CIN 24 BUF 27
- 10 CIN 7 BUF 20
Your call
Did the Bengals earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bills
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Bills: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.34 | +0.15 | better by 0.19 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.07 | better by 0.03 |
| Bills offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.21 | worse by 0.16 |
| Bills defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.34 | +0.05 | worse by 0.29 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 76% of them, Bills 24%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 22.1% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 28.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 14.0% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| Bills by 17+ | 2.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- T. Bass, 25 yds made · 97% expected
- E. McPherson, 20 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Bengals 2 for 9 yards, Bills 8 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:25 | Defensive Offside on the Bills (Boogie Basham), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% CIN +1.9 pts |
| Q2 10:32 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards | +5% CIN +1.7 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:17 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 4 yards | 0% BUF +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:29 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bills, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:29 | Encroachment on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:17 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards | +1% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:54 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 26 yards | +1% CIN +2.2 pts |
| Q4 8:10 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:39 | False Start on the Bengals, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.2 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Bills’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:25 | Defensive Offside on the Bills (Boogie Basham), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 720 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 | +5% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:51 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:02 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:51 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +4% CIN | BUF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 10:32 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 1:01 | D. Singletary dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 44 catchable balls before this | +5% CIN | BUF: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 7:50 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% CIN | BUF: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 5:23 | T. Irwin dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 19 catchable balls before this | +4% BUF | CIN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Christian Benford (BUF CB), out · 0.5 pts
- DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out · 0.4 pts
- Von Miller (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Jonah Williams (CIN T), out · 1.0 pts
- La'el Collins (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Alex Cappa (CIN G), out · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 100% · Bills 0%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 17
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 12.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 76% · Bills 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2022 games · 
Bengals · 
Bills
More from Divisional round 2022
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- Cowboys at 49ers SF 19–12 · replay 77% for the winner