luckadjusted

Divisional round 2022 · January 21, 2023

Jaguars at Chiefs, Divisional round 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 27–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.3 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 77% favorites.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Kansas City Chiefs 27

January 21, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10

Luck index +5 Chiefs about even · −5 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Chiefs win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 26 KC 19
  2. 2 JAX 14 KC 17
  3. 3 JAX 23 KC 30
  4. 4 JAX 20 KC 30
  5. 5 JAX 26 KC 39
  6. 6 JAX 7 KC 23
  7. 7 JAX 26 KC 45
  8. 8 JAX 14 KC 37
  9. 9 JAX 7 KC 34
  10. 10 JAX 10 KC 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 5% of them, Chiefs 95%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.3%
Jaguars by 9–160.9%
Jaguars by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.5%
Chiefs by 1–810.3%
Chiefs by 9–1621.0%
Chiefs by 17+63.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 0.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • R. Patterson, 41 yds made · 84% expected
  • H. Butker, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • R. Patterson, 48 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:29 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:17 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +5% JAX KC: Field goal
3 Q3 7:12 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +6% JAX KC: Punt
4 Q4 9:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Corey Peters), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2125 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +5% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:52 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% JAX JAX: Turnover
6 Q4 6:13 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% JAX JAX: Turnover
7 Q4 6:07 E. Engram dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 95 catchable balls before this +6% KC JAX: Turnover
8 Q4 5:36 The Jaguars fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% KC JAX: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Dawuane Smoot (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 30% · Chiefs 70%

Final margin
Chiefs by 7
Luck in points
6.2 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 5% · Chiefs 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2022 games · Jaguars · Chiefs

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