Jaguars 20 
Chiefs 27 Replays agree · Chiefs win 94% of replays 2022 NFL season · January 21, 2023–January 22
Divisional round 2022: who deserved to win
No winner of Divisional round was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Bengals won 27–10 and take 76% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Jaguars 20 Chiefs 27 Replays agree · Chiefs win 94% of replays 
Giants 7 
Eagles 38 Replays agree · Eagles win 90% of replays 
Bengals 27 
Bills 10 Replays agree · Bengals win 76% of replays Off day for the Bills 62% to win a fresh game, 24% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. 
Cowboys 12 
49ers 19 Replays agree · 49ers win 77% of replays Divisional round 2022 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 27–10 @ Bills | 33% | 76% | Deserved |
Luck ranking, divisional round
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bengals | W 27–10 @ Bills | 76% | +24 |
| 2 | 49ers | W 19–12 vs Cowboys | 77% | +23 |
| 3 | Eagles | W 38–7 vs Giants | 90% | +10 |
| 4 | Chiefs | W 27–20 vs Jaguars | 94% | +6 |
| 5 | Jaguars | L 20–27 @ Chiefs | 6% | −6 |
| 6 | Giants | L 7–38 @ Eagles | 10% | −10 |
| 7 | Cowboys | L 12–19 @ 49ers | 23% | −23 |
| 8 | Bills | L 10–27 vs Bengals | 24% | −24 |