Jaguars 20 
Chiefs 27 Deserved · Chiefs win 95% of replays 2022 NFL season · January 21, 2023–January 22
Divisional round 2022: who deserved to win
Every winner of Divisional round earned it. The closest call: the 49ers won 19–12 and take 75% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Jaguars 20 Chiefs 27 Deserved · Chiefs win 95% of replays 
Giants 7 
Eagles 38 Deserved · Eagles win 85% of replays 
Bengals 27 
Bills 10 Deserved · Bengals win 76% of replays Off day for the Bills 62% to win a fresh game, 24% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. 
Cowboys 12 
49ers 19 Deserved · 49ers win 75% of replays Luck ranking, divisional round
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers | W 19–12 vs Cowboys | 75% | +25 |
| 2 | Bengals | W 27–10 @ Bills | 76% | +24 |
| 3 | Eagles | W 38–7 vs Giants | 85% | +15 |
| 4 | Chiefs | W 27–20 vs Jaguars | 95% | +5 |
| 5 | Jaguars | L 20–27 @ Chiefs | 5% | −5 |
| 6 | Giants | L 7–38 @ Eagles | 15% | −15 |
| 7 | Bills | L 10–27 vs Bengals | 24% | −24 |
| 8 | Cowboys | L 12–19 @ 49ers | 25% | −25 |