luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Divisional round 2022 · January 22, 2023

Cowboys at 49ers, Divisional round 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Cowboys 19–12, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:15 left): E. Elliott dropped a catchable pass, worth 11 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 12
San Francisco 49ers 19

January 22, 2023 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −3.5

Luck index +23 49ers about even · −23 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 2, 49ers win 8.

  1. 1 DAL 22 SF 10
  2. 2 DAL 23 SF 20
  3. 3 DAL 17 SF 18
  4. 4 DAL 17 SF 20
  5. 5 DAL 17 SF 22
  6. 6 DAL 9 SF 16
  7. 7 DAL 16 SF 26
  8. 8 DAL 3 SF 16
  9. 9 DAL 10 SF 28
  10. 10 DAL 7 SF 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 23% of them, 49ers 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+2.5%
Cowboys by 9–165.4%
Cowboys by 1–814.1%
Level after regulation3.9%
49ers by 1–828.4%
49ers by 9–1622.5%
49ers by 17+23.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 7, without the luck 49ers by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 26 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Gould, 47 yds made · 70% expected
  • R. Gould, 50 yds made · 63% expected
  • B. Maher, 25 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Maher, 43 yds made · 78% expected
  • R. Gould, 28 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 7 for 50 yards, 49ers 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:01 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% SF +0.9 pts
Q1 0:56 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SF +0.7 pts
Q2 6:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 15 yards +7% SF +1.8 pts
Q2 5:41 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards +6% DAL +1.1 pts
Q2 3:38 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Dre Greenlaw), 15 yards +7% DAL +1.4 pts
Q3 6:05 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SF +0.5 pts
Q3 5:58 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.4 pts
Q3 1:03 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% SF +1.5 pts
Q3 0:37 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards +3% SF +0.1 pts
Q4 0:51 Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.2 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:20 The 49ers converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% SF SF: Field goal
2 Q2 3:38 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Dre Greenlaw), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3023 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +7% DAL DAL: Turnover
3 Q2 2:00 The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +10% DAL DAL: Turnover
4 Q2 1:24 The Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +7% SF DAL: Punt
5 Q3 11:51 The 49ers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% DAL SF: Punt
6 Q3 9:15 E. Elliott dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 22 catchable balls before this +11% SF DAL: Field goal
7 Q3 1:06 The 49ers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +7% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:03 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 2507 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 +8% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out, replaced by b.purdy · 2.0 pts
  • Hassan Ridgeway (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Terence Steele (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 35% · 49ers 65%

Final margin
49ers by 7
Luck in points
4.4 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 23% · 49ers 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2022 games · Cowboys · 49ers

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