Seahawks 23 
49ers 41 Deserved · 49ers win 84% of replays 2022 NFL season · January 14, 2023–January 16
Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win
2 of 6 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Ravens 24–17 in a game they win 38% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Seahawks 23 49ers 41 Deserved · 49ers win 84% of replays 
Chargers 30 
Jaguars 31 Deserved · Jaguars win 67% of replays 
Dolphins 31 
Bills 34 Deserved · Bills win 93% of replays 
Giants 31 
Vikings 24 Coin flip · Giants win 49% of replays 
Ravens unlucky 17 
Bengals lucky 24 Winner outplayed · Bengals win 38% of replays The Bengals won on an off day 72% to win a fresh game, 38% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. 
Cowboys 31 
Buccaneers 14 Deserved · Cowboys win 95% of replays Luck ranking, wild card
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bengals | W 24–17 vs Ravens | 38% | +62 |
| 2 | Giants | W 31–24 @ Vikings | 49% | +51 |
| 3 | Jaguars | W 31–30 vs Chargers | 67% | +33 |
| 4 | 49ers | W 41–23 vs Seahawks | 84% | +16 |
| 5 | Bills | W 34–31 vs Dolphins | 93% | +7 |
| 6 | Cowboys | W 31–14 @ Buccaneers | 95% | +5 |
| 7 | Buccaneers | L 14–31 vs Cowboys | 5% | −5 |
| 8 | Dolphins | L 31–34 @ Bills | 7% | −7 |
| 9 | Seahawks | L 23–41 @ 49ers | 16% | −16 |
| 10 | Chargers | L 30–31 @ Jaguars | 33% | −33 |
| 11 | Vikings | L 24–31 vs Giants | 51% | −51 |
| 12 | Ravens | L 17–24 @ Bengals | 62% | −62 |