luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2022 NFL season · January 14, 2023–January 16

Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win

No winner of Wild Card was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Bengals won 24–17 and take 57% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Wild Card 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 31–24 @ Vikings 43% 68% Deserved
Jaguars 31–30 vs Chargers 44% 75% Deserved

Luck ranking, wild card

Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 24–17 vs Ravens 57% +43
2 Giants W 31–24 @ Vikings 68% +32
3 Jaguars W 31–30 vs Chargers 75% +25
4 49ers W 41–23 vs Seahawks 83% +17
5 Bills W 34–31 vs Dolphins 94% +6
6 Cowboys W 31–14 @ Buccaneers 98% +2
7 Buccaneers L 14–31 vs Cowboys 2% −2
8 Dolphins L 31–34 @ Bills 6% −6
9 Seahawks L 23–41 @ 49ers 17% −17
10 Chargers L 30–31 @ Jaguars 25% −25
11 Vikings L 24–31 vs Giants 32% −32
12 Ravens L 17–24 @ Bengals 43% −43