luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Divisional round 2025 · January 17, 2026

Bills at Broncos, Divisional round 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Bills 33–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 41 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:19 left): K. Shakir dropped a catchable pass, worth 34 points of win probability to the Broncos. The biggest single swing (OT, 5:24 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 30 yards.

Final (OT)

Buffalo Bills 30
Denver Broncos 33

January 17, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −1.5

Luck index +53 Broncos lucky · −53 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 5, Broncos win 5.

  1. 1 BUF 37 DEN 9
  2. 2 BUF 55 DEN 39
  3. 3 BUF 27 DEN 17
  4. 4 BUF 27 DEN 22
  5. 5 BUF 14 DEN 12
  6. 6 BUF 30 DEN 33
  7. 7 BUF 31 DEN 37
  8. 8 BUF 13 DEN 23
  9. 9 BUF 10 DEN 26
  10. 10 BUF 13 DEN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 53% of them, Broncos 47%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+12.5%
Bills by 9–1615.0%
Bills by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation5.1%
Broncos by 1–820.1%
Broncos by 9–1614.9%
Broncos by 17+10.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.6 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 3, without the luck Bills by 6.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Prater, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Lutz, 50 yds made · 65% expected
  • W. Lutz, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Prater, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Prater, 50 yds made · 70% expected
  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 5 for 68 yards, Broncos 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:29 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Larry Ogunjobi), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% DEN +2.4 pts
Q2 9:33 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bills, 10 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q2 0:56 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 11:54 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.3 pts
Q4 0:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Jonathon Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.5 pts
OT 6:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 17 yards +22% DEN +1.5 pts
OT 5:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 30 yards +36% DEN +2.4 pts
OT 5:17 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 6 yards +4% DEN +0.8 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 2:38 The Broncos converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +18% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q4 0:19 The game turned hereK. Shakir dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 263 catchable balls before this +34% DEN BUF: Field goal
3 Q4 0:10 M. Prater made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 55 of 74 from 45+ before +17% BUF BUF: Turnover
4 OT 11:40 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +17% BUF BUF: Turnover
5 OT 9:25 The Bills converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +15% BUF BUF: Turnover
6 OT 7:55 The Bills were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +28% DEN –
7 OT 6:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 23 flags in 6414 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +22% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 OT 5:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 30 yardsJudgment calls · 32 flags in 4789 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +36% DEN DEN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Jones (DEN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Wattenberg (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Poyer (BUF S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyrell Shavers (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Palmer (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 74% · Broncos 26%

Final margin
Broncos by 3
Luck in points
9.6 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Bills 53% · Broncos 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2025 games · Bills · Broncos

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