Bills 30 
Broncos 33 Coin flip · Broncos win 47% of replays 2025 NFL season · January 17, 2026–January 18
Divisional round 2025: who deserved to win
1 of 4 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Bears 20–17 in a game they win 34% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Bills 30 Broncos 33 Coin flip · Broncos win 47% of replays 
49ers 6 
Seahawks 41 Replays agree · Seahawks win 92% of replays 
Texans 16 
Patriots 28 Replays agree · Patriots win 91% of replays Off day for the Texans 40% to win a fresh game, 9% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. 
Rams lucky 20 
Bears unlucky 17 Replays favor loser · Rams win 34% of replays Divisional round 2025 upsets
Every betting favorite won this round.
Luck ranking, divisional round
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rams | W 20–17 @ Bears | 34% | +66 |
| 2 | Broncos | W 33–30 vs Bills | 47% | +53 |
| 3 | Patriots | W 28–16 vs Texans | 91% | +9 |
| 4 | Seahawks | W 41–6 vs 49ers | 92% | +8 |
| 5 | 49ers | L 6–41 @ Seahawks | 8% | −8 |
| 6 | Texans | L 16–28 @ Patriots | 9% | −9 |
| 7 | Bills | L 30–33 @ Broncos | 53% | −53 |
| 8 | Bears | L 17–20 vs Rams | 66% | −66 |