Patriots 10 
Broncos 7 Replays agree · Patriots win 84% of replays 2025 NFL season · January 25, 2026
Conference championships 2025: who deserved to win
1 of 2 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the Rams 31–27 in a game they win 35% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Patriots 10 Broncos 7 Replays agree · Patriots win 84% of replays 
Rams unlucky 27 
Seahawks lucky 31 Replays favor loser · Seahawks win 35% of replays Conference championships 2025 upsets
Every betting favorite won this round.
Luck ranking, conference championships
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seahawks | W 31–27 vs Rams | 35% | +65 |
| 2 | Patriots | W 10–7 @ Broncos | 84% | +16 |
| 3 | Broncos | L 7–10 vs Patriots | 16% | −16 |
| 4 | Rams | L 27–31 @ Seahawks | 65% | −65 |