luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2019 · October 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Vikings, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat Washington 19–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 89% favorites.

Final

Washington Redskins 9
Minnesota Vikings 19

October 24, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −16.5

Luck index +20 Vikings about even · −20 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 21 MIN 10
  2. 2 WAS 23 MIN 20
  3. 3 WAS 13 MIN 15
  4. 4 WAS 27 MIN 31
  5. 5 WAS 17 MIN 23
  6. 6 WAS 14 MIN 23
  7. 7 WAS 3 MIN 16
  8. 8 WAS 12 MIN 26
  9. 9 WAS 3 MIN 23
  10. 10 WAS 13 MIN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 20% of them, Vikings 80%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+1.8%
Washington by 9–165.0%
Washington by 1–811.6%
Level after regulation2.7%
Vikings by 1–827.8%
Vikings by 9–1622.0%
Vikings by 17+29.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to Washington: the final margin was Vikings by 10, without the luck Vikings by 12.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Bailey, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Bailey, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • D. Bailey, 40 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 4 for 46 yards, Vikings 7 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:24 Offensive Holding on Washington (Jeremy Sprinkle), 10 yards +5% MIN +1.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 19 yards +6% WAS +2.1 pts
Q2 12:48 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% WAS +1.3 pts
Q3 12:00 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington, 15 yards +3% MIN +1.8 pts
Q3 10:57 Roughing the Passer on Washington, 6 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 10:27 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Laquon Treadwell), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 5:11 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 13:10 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 15 yards +3% MIN +1.5 pts
Q4 12:43 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +1% WAS +1.5 pts
Q4 3:41 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% WAS +2.7 pts
Q4 3:31 Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% WAS +1.3 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:52 Washington converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% WAS WAS: Turnover
2 Q1 9:04 Washington fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% MIN WAS: Field goal
3 Q1 7:15 The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +6% MIN MIN: Field goal
4 Q1 5:25 D. Bailey made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +5% MIN MIN: Field goal
5 Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 413 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q2 8:11 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% WAS MIN: Field goal
7 Q2 2:53 Washington fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q3 2:48 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +7% WAS MIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Vernon Davis (WAS TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Montae Nicholson (WAS FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Wes Martin (WAS G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Thompson (WAS RB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 2% · Vikings 98%

Final margin
Vikings by 10
Luck in points
2.4 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 12.4
Replay with same day's form
Washington 20% · Vikings 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Washington · Vikings

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