luckadjusted

Week 8 2019 · October 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Vikings, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat Washington 19–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10. Washington had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.4 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 89% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:03 left): D. Hopkins made 21-yard field goal, worth 15 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Washington Redskins 9
Minnesota Vikings 19

October 24, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −16.5

Luck index +18 Vikings about even · −18 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 27 MIN 16
  2. 2 WAS 24 MIN 21
  3. 3 WAS 10 MIN 13
  4. 4 WAS 10 MIN 16
  5. 5 WAS 16 MIN 23
  6. 6 WAS 10 MIN 20
  7. 7 WAS 10 MIN 23
  8. 8 WAS 7 MIN 23
  9. 9 WAS 0 MIN 20
  10. 10 WAS 13 MIN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 18% of them, Vikings 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+1.1%
Washington by 9–165.1%
Washington by 1–811.3%
Level after regulation2.4%
Vikings by 1–827.1%
Vikings by 9–1621.4%
Vikings by 17+31.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 13.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Bailey, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Bailey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • D. Bailey, 40 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:52 Washington converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% WAS WAS: Turnover
2 Q1 9:04 Washington fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% MIN WAS: Field goal
3 Q1 7:15 The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% MIN MIN: Field goal
4 Q1 2:32 Washington converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +6% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q2 14:03 D. Hopkins made 21-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +15% MIN WAS: Field goal
6 Q2 8:11 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% WAS MIN: Field goal
7 Q2 2:53 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q3 2:48 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% WAS MIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Vernon Davis (WAS TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Montae Nicholson (WAS FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Wes Martin (WAS G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Thompson (WAS RB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 2% · Vikings 98%

Final margin
Vikings by 10
Luck in points
3.3 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 13.3
Replay with same day's form
Washington 18% · Vikings 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Washington · Vikings

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