luckadjusted

Week 8 2019 · October 28, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Steelers, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Dolphins 27–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.1 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:26 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 20, worth 20 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Miami Dolphins 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 27

October 28, 2019 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −14

Luck index +8 Steelers about even · −8 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Steelers win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 19 PIT 13
  2. 2 MIA 14 PIT 16
  3. 3 MIA 3 PIT 7
  4. 4 MIA 14 PIT 23
  5. 5 MIA 7 PIT 19
  6. 6 MIA 17 PIT 31
  7. 7 MIA 3 PIT 20
  8. 8 MIA 3 PIT 23
  9. 9 MIA 10 PIT 34
  10. 10 MIA 14 PIT 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 8% of them, Steelers 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.2%
Dolphins by 9–161.9%
Dolphins by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Steelers by 1–817.0%
Steelers by 9–1623.5%
Steelers by 17+50.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 14.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Boswell, 54 yds missed · 68% expected
  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:39 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% MIA PIT: Punt
2 Q2 4:29 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q2 0:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 228 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +11% MIA MIA: End of half
4 Q2 0:26 The Steelers converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +20% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q3 11:28 C. Boswell missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +9% MIA PIT: Touchdown
6 Q3 9:35 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Vance McDonald), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 206 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +11% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 4:51 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:20 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +11% PIT MIA: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Sean Davis (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Daniel Kilgore (MIA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Avery Moss (MIA DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kenyan Drake (MIA RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Danny Isidora (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 2% · Steelers 98%

Final margin
Steelers by 13
Luck in points
1.7 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 14.7
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 8% · Steelers 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Dolphins · Steelers

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