luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2019 · October 28, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Steelers, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Dolphins 27–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:51 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Miami Dolphins 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 27

October 28, 2019 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −14

Luck index +8 Steelers about even · −8 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Steelers win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 16 PIT 10
  2. 2 MIA 7 PIT 10
  3. 3 MIA 17 PIT 21
  4. 4 MIA 17 PIT 24
  5. 5 MIA 7 PIT 17
  6. 6 MIA 0 PIT 13
  7. 7 MIA 12 PIT 28
  8. 8 MIA 13 PIT 32
  9. 9 MIA 10 PIT 33
  10. 10 MIA 2 PIT 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 8% of them, Steelers 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.4%
Dolphins by 9–161.9%
Dolphins by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation0.6%
Steelers by 1–816.3%
Steelers by 9–1621.8%
Steelers by 17+53.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 13, without the luck Steelers by 10.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Boswell, 54 yds missed · 69% expected
  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 5 for 45 yards, Steelers 9 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:23 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.8 pts
Q1 10:55 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q1 9:29 Illegal Use of Hands on the Dolphins, 5 yards +3% PIT +1.6 pts
Q1 9:01 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% MIA +2.3 pts
Q1 6:18 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 2:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.8 pts
Q2 0:54 False Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.4 pts
Q2 0:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% MIA +3.4 pts
Q3 9:35 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Vance McDonald), 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% MIA +2.8 pts
Q4 13:42 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +1% MIA +1.1 pts
Q4 13:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 25 yards +4% PIT +1.9 pts
Q4 12:25 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +1.2 pts
Q4 10:44 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.6 pts
Q4 9:06 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +1% MIA +1.0 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:01 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:39 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% MIA PIT: Punt
3 Q2 0:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 228 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +11% MIA MIA: End of half
4 Q2 0:26 The Steelers converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q3 11:28 C. Boswell missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +9% MIA PIT: Touchdown
6 Q3 9:35 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Vance McDonald), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 206 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +11% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 4:51 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:20 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% PIT MIA: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Sean Davis (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Daniel Kilgore (MIA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Avery Moss (MIA DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kenyan Drake (MIA RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Danny Isidora (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 3% · Steelers 97%

Final margin
Steelers by 13
Luck in points
2.5 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 8% · Steelers 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Dolphins · Steelers

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