Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Buccaneers at Titans, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?
The Titans stole one. They beat the Buccaneers 27–23, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.2 points to the Titans.
The Titans won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Titans were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:20 left): Offensive Holding on the Titans (MyCole Pruitt), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +84 Titans very lucky · −84 Buccaneers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Titans win 2.
- 1 TB 43 TEN 9
- 2 TB 43 TEN 17
- 3 TB 34 TEN 13
- 4 TB 30 TEN 14
- 5 TB 21 TEN 9
- 6 TB 33 TEN 24
- 7 TB 19 TEN 13
- 8 TB 26 TEN 23
- 9 TB 21 TEN 24
- 10 TB 16 TEN 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Titans won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.15 | worse by 0.05 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.14 | better by 0.22 |
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.06 | worse by 0.14 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.07 | worse by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buccaneers win 84% of them, Titans 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 47.3% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 17.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| Titans by 17+ | 1.5% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Titans by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 0.3.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- M. Gay, 48 yds made · 78% expected
- M. Gay, 24 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Parkey, 51 yds made · 72% expected
- C. Parkey, 42 yds made · 86% expected
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (LeShaun Sims), 43 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 133 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +11% TB | TB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 0:21 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +11% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 3:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 17 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 422 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +23% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 3:49 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 20 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 422 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +24% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 12:20 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (MyCole Pruitt), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 298 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 | +30% TB | TB: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 7:00 | The Titans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +15% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 3:29 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +10% TB | TB: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 2:00 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +19% TEN | TB: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Sharif Finch (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
- O.J. Howard (TB TE), out · 0.6 pts
- Alex Cappa (TB G), out · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buccaneers 54% · Titans 46%
- Final margin
- Titans by 4
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Buccaneers 84% · Titans 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · 
Buccaneers · 
Titans
More from Week 8 2019
- Washington at Vikings MIN 19–9 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cardinals at Saints NO 31–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bengals vs Rams LA 24–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Broncos at Colts IND 15–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Chargers at Bears LAC 17–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Giants at Lions DET 31–26 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars JAX 29–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eagles at Bills PHI 31–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 27–20 · replay 37% for the winner
- Panthers at 49ers SF 51–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Patriots NE 27–13 · replay 72% for the winner
- Raiders at Texans HOU 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Packers at Chiefs GB 31–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- Dolphins at Steelers PIT 27–14 · replay 92% for the winner