luckadjusted

Wild Card 2019 · January 5, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Saints, Wild Card 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Saints 26–20, but the Saints played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.3 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Saints were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:26 left): the Saints fumbled and the Vikings recovered, worth 18 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final (OT)

Minnesota Vikings 26
New Orleans Saints 20

January 5, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −7.5

Luck index +65 Vikings very lucky · −65 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 4, Saints win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 41 NO 20
  2. 2 MIN 24 NO 13
  3. 3 MIN 24 NO 17
  4. 4 MIN 41 NO 38
  5. 5 MIN 27 NO 30
  6. 6 MIN 19 NO 25
  7. 7 MIN 24 NO 34
  8. 8 MIN 24 NO 37
  9. 9 MIN 17 NO 34
  10. 10 MIN 23 NO 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 35% of them, Saints 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+6.9%
Vikings by 9–1610.0%
Vikings by 1–817.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Saints by 1–823.1%
Saints by 9–1619.4%
Saints by 17+20.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 0.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Bailey, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • D. Bailey, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Lutz, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
  • W. Lutz, 49 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 The Vikings fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NO MIN: Field goal
2 Q1 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Adam Thielen), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 439 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +8% NO NO: Punt
3 Q2 0:05 W. Lutz missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +16% MIN NO: Punt
4 Q3 6:15 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:26 The Saints fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% MIN NO: Field goal
6 Q4 0:21 False Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% MIN MIN: End of game
7 Q4 0:07 W. Lutz made 49-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 10 of 13 from 45+ before +10% NO –
8 QOT 13:45 The Vikings converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Eli Apple (NO CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Aviante Collins (MIN T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mackensie Alexander (MIN CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 55% · Saints 45%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
5.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 35% · Saints 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2019 games · Vikings · Saints

More from Wild Card 2019