luckadjusted

Wild Card 2019 · January 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Patriots, Wild Card 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Patriots 20–13, but the Patriots played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.9 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:15 left): Return touchdown by the Titans, worth 20 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 20
New England Patriots 13

January 4, 2020 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −4.5

Luck index +61 Titans very lucky · −61 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Patriots win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 37 NE 16
  2. 2 TEN 29 NE 19
  3. 3 TEN 16 NE 10
  4. 4 TEN 16 NE 14
  5. 5 TEN 24 NE 26
  6. 6 TEN 21 NE 26
  7. 7 TEN 21 NE 30
  8. 8 TEN 27 NE 39
  9. 9 TEN 22 NE 38
  10. 10 TEN 10 NE 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 39% of them, Patriots 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+6.6%
Titans by 9–1612.5%
Titans by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation3.3%
Patriots by 1–825.9%
Patriots by 9–1617.3%
Patriots by 17+15.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 1.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • N. Folk, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:51 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% NE NE: Field goal
2 Q1 5:44 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q3 9:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q3 7:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 18 yardsJudgment calls +7% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q3 6:35 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q4 3:04 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +14% NE NE: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 2:54 The Titans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +14% TEN TEN: Punt
8 Q4 0:15 Return touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +20% TEN TEN: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adam Humphries (TEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 37% · Patriots 63%

Final margin
Titans by 7
Luck in points
8.5 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Titans 39% · Patriots 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2019 games · Titans · Patriots

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