Wild Card 2019 · January 5, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Seahawks at Eagles, Wild Card 2019: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Eagles 17–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:03 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 39 yards, worth 14 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 17 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 9 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Seahawks lucky · −32 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 7, Eagles win 3.
- 1 SEA 37 PHI 13
- 2 SEA 21 PHI 3
- 3 SEA 14 PHI 0
- 4 SEA 24 PHI 12
- 5 SEA 19 PHI 10
- 6 SEA 27 PHI 23
- 7 SEA 21 PHI 20
- 8 SEA 10 PHI 12
- 9 SEA 16 PHI 23
- 10 SEA 7 PHI 24
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 68% of them, Eagles 32%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 17.3% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 21.4% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 27.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 8.7% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 3.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 35 yds blocked · 91% expected
- J. Myers, 49 yds made · 63% expected
- J. Elliott, 46 yds made · 71% expected
- J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 11 for 114 yards, Eagles 7 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:34 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 15 yards | +2% SEA +1.4 pts |
| Q1 8:15 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% PHI +1.1 pts |
| Q1 3:03 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:53 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% PHI +2.2 pts |
| Q2 11:04 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +5% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:11 | Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:52 | Defensive Holding on the Eagles, 5 yards | +3% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards | +2% SEA +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | False Start on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:06 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:45 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% SEA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:40 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 20 yards | +7% PHI +1.7 pts |
| Q3 12:55 | Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:36 | False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:15 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks, 5 yards | +1% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:45 | False Start on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:24 | False Start on the Eagles (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:03 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 39 yards | +14% PHI +2.9 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:49 | J. Myers had a 35-yard field goal blockedKicks · 91% expected for him | +9% PHI | SEA: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:51 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +11% SEA | SEA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 11:53 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 697 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 | +8% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 5:20 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +11% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 2:00 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:36 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +14% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 6:24 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +11% SEA | PHI: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 4:03 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 39 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1073 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +14% PHI | PHI: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
- Ronald Darby (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Nelson Agholor (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Kamu Grugier-Hill (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Duane Brown (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
- Mike Iupati (SEA G), out · 0.6 pts
- Chris Carson (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Mychal Kendricks (SEA LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 97% · Eagles 3%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 8
- Luck in points
- 3.2 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 11.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 68% · Eagles 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2019 games · 
Seahawks · 
Eagles
More from Wild Card 2019
- Bills at Texans HOU 22–19 · replay 62% for the winner
- Titans at Patriots TEN 20–13 · replay 41% for the winner
- Vikings at Saints MIN 26–20 · replay 36% for the winner