luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Referee · 2019–2026

Shawn Hochuli: flags and calls

Shawn Hochuli’s crews have worked 120 games since 2019: 8.1 judgment flags a game, about the same as the league average of 7.4, and 4.5 pre-snap flags. Their judgment calls were worth +1.9% of a win a game to the home team (league: +0.9%), each weighted by the moment it came.

Season by season

SeasonGamesJudgment flags per gamePre-snapToward home, a game
2019168.93.7+1.3%
2020157.74.3+5.5%
2021178.74.4+1.9%
2022177.93.8+4.5%
2023176.93.9−1.4%
2024177.86.0−1.1%
2025178.75.2−0.6%
202648.36.3+17.5%

The calls that swung games most

By the change in win probability they caused.

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 33 yards · LV at DAL, 2021 Week 12 · 43 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Holding on the Packers (Xavier McKinney), 3 yards, wiping out the play · GB at MIN, 2026 Week 1 · 38 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play · DAL at TB, 2021 Week 1 · 31 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · TB at NO, 2020 Divisional round · 30 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the play · GB at IND, 2020 Week 11 · 26 pts of win probability
  6. Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 6 yards, wiping out the play · PIT at CIN, 2022 Week 1 · 24 pts of win probability
  7. Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 8 yards, wiping out the play · NYG at CHI, 2019 Week 12 · 22 pts of win probability
  8. Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 8 yards, wiping out the play · BAL at NE, 2020 Week 10 · 22 pts of win probability

Every game

WeekGameResultWinner wins the replayLuck index
2026 Week 4 Titans at Ravens BAL 24–18 95% +5
2026 Week 3 Eagles at Bears CHI 27–7 95% +5
2026 Week 2 Commanders at Cowboys DAL 37–20 82% +18
2026 Week 1 Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 46% +54
2025 Divisional round Rams at Bears LA 20–17 34% +66
2025 Week 18 Commanders at Eagles WAS 24–17 43% +57
2025 Week 16 Jaguars at Broncos JAX 34–20 56% +44
2025 Week 15 Chargers at Chiefs LAC 16–13 52% +48
2025 Week 14 Cowboys at Lions DET 44–30 80% +20
2025 Week 13 Falcons at Jets NYJ 27–24 9% +91
2025 Week 12 Browns at Raiders CLE 24–10 38% +62
2025 Week 11 Texans at Titans HOU 16–13 84% +16
2025 Week 10 Ravens at Vikings BAL 27–19 85% +15
2025 Week 8 Packers at Steelers GB 35–25 97% +3
2025 Week 7 Dolphins at Browns CLE 31–6 79% +21
2025 Week 6 Cardinals at Colts IND 31–27 85% +15
2025 Week 5 Patriots at Bills NE 23–20 54% +46
2025 Week 4 Chargers at Giants NYG 21–18 18% +82
2025 Week 3 Raiders at Commanders WAS 41–24 90% +10
2025 Week 2 Buccaneers at Texans TB 20–19 78% +22
2025 Week 1 49ers at Seahawks SF 17–13 53% +47
2024 NFC Championship Commanders at Eagles PHI 55–23 96% +4
2024 Week 18 Chiefs at Broncos DEN 38–0 97% +3
2024 Week 17 Lions at 49ers DET 40–34 54% +46
2024 Week 16 Jaguars at Raiders LV 19–14 91% +9
2024 Week 15 Commanders at Saints WAS 20–19 64% +36
2024 Week 14 Jets at Dolphins MIA 32–26 51% +49
2024 Week 13 Steelers at Bengals PIT 44–38 69% +31
2024 Week 12 Lions at Colts DET 24–6 97% +3
2024 Week 10 Giants vs Panthers CAR 20–17 24% +76
2024 Week 9 Texans at Jets NYJ 21–13 65% +35
2024 Week 8 Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 31–26 91% +9
2024 Week 7 Raiders at Rams LA 20–15 90% +10
2024 Week 6 Browns at Eagles PHI 20–16 98% +2
2024 Week 5 Cowboys at Steelers DAL 20–17 83% +17
2024 Week 3 Texans at Vikings MIN 34–7 85% +15
2024 Week 2 Colts at Packers GB 16–10 80% +20
2024 Week 1 Ravens at Chiefs KC 27–20 51% +49
2023 Divisional round Chiefs at Bills KC 27–24 79% +21
2023 Week 18 Broncos at Raiders LV 27–14 81% +19
2023 Week 17 Steelers at Seahawks PIT 30–23 75% +25
2023 Week 16 Cowboys at Dolphins MIA 22–20 74% +26
2023 Week 15 Chiefs at Patriots KC 27–17 93% +7
2023 Week 14 Colts at Bengals CIN 34–14 89% +11
2023 Week 12 Bills at Eagles PHI 37–34 41% +59
2023 Week 11 Steelers at Browns CLE 13–10 29% +71
2023 Week 10 Jets at Raiders LV 16–12 48% +52
2023 Week 9 Seahawks at Ravens BAL 37–3 98% +2
2023 Week 8 Vikings at Packers MIN 24–10 94% +6
2023 Week 6 Broncos at Chiefs KC 19–8 86% +14
2023 Week 5 Texans at Falcons ATL 21–19 59% +41
2023 Week 4 Buccaneers at Saints TB 26–9 87% +13
2023 Week 3 Giants at 49ers SF 30–12 91% +9
2023 Week 2 Ravens at Bengals BAL 27–24 70% +30
2023 Week 1 Eagles at Patriots PHI 25–20 72% +28
2022 Divisional round Jaguars at Chiefs KC 27–20 94% +6
2022 Week 18 Chargers at Broncos DEN 31–28 83% +17
2022 Week 17 Cowboys at Titans DAL 27–13 96% +4
2022 Week 16 Lions at Panthers CAR 37–23 89% +11
2022 Week 15 Rams at Packers GB 24–12 99% +1
2022 Week 13 Bills at Patriots BUF 24–10 92% +8
2022 Week 12 Saints at 49ers SF 13–0 37% +63
2022 Week 11 Chiefs at Chargers KC 30–27 96% +4
2022 Week 10 Browns at Dolphins MIA 39–17 98% +2
2022 Week 9 Rams at Buccaneers TB 16–13 71% +29
2022 Week 8 Panthers at Falcons ATL 37–34 59% +41
2022 Week 6 Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 19–9 91% +9
2022 Week 5 Bears at Vikings MIN 29–22 91% +9
2022 Week 4 Jaguars at Eagles PHI 29–21 97% +3
2022 Week 3 49ers at Broncos DEN 11–10 43% +57
2022 Week 2 Buccaneers at Saints TB 20–10 66% +34
2022 Week 1 Steelers at Bengals PIT 23–20 22% +78
2021 Divisional round Rams at Buccaneers LA 30–27 42% +58
2021 Week 18 Steelers at Ravens PIT 16–13 14% +86
2021 Week 17 Giants at Bears CHI 29–3 90% +10
2021 Week 16 49ers at Titans TEN 20–17 33% +67
2021 Week 15 Seahawks at Rams LA 20–10 89% +11
2021 Week 13 Chargers at Bengals LAC 41–22 71% +29
2021 Week 12 Raiders at Cowboys LV 36–33 39% +61
2021 Week 11 Packers at Vikings MIN 34–31 46% +54
2021 Week 10 Eagles at Broncos PHI 30–13 71% +29
2021 Week 8 Steelers at Browns PIT 15–10 51% +49
2021 Week 7 Saints at Seahawks NO 13–10 48% +52
2021 Week 6 Bengals at Lions CIN 34–11 90% +10
2021 Week 5 Eagles at Panthers PHI 21–18 44% +56
2021 Week 4 Cardinals at Rams ARI 37–20 71% +29
2021 Week 3 Chargers at Chiefs LAC 30–24 33% +67
2021 Week 2 Patriots at Jets NE 25–6 74% +26
2021 Week 1 Cowboys at Buccaneers TB 31–29 75% +25
2020 Divisional round Buccaneers at Saints TB 30–20 56% +44
2020 Week 17 Titans at Texans TEN 41–38 40% +60
2020 Week 16 Broncos at Chargers LAC 19–16 28% +72
2020 Week 15 Browns at Giants CLE 20–6 77% +23
2020 Week 14 Broncos at Panthers DEN 32–27 59% +41
2020 Week 12 Chiefs at Buccaneers KC 27–24 51% +49
2020 Week 11 Packers at Colts IND 34–31 32% +68
2020 Week 10 Ravens at Patriots NE 23–17 93% +7
2020 Week 9 Giants at Washington NYG 23–20 34% +66
2020 Week 8 Falcons at Panthers ATL 25–17 37% +63
2020 Week 7 Steelers at Titans PIT 27–24 63% +37
2020 Week 6 Lions at Jaguars DET 34–16 84% +16
2020 Week 3 Washington at Browns CLE 34–20 97% +3
2020 Week 2 Saints at Raiders LV 34–24 20% +80
2020 Week 1 Seahawks at Falcons SEA 38–25 33% +67
2019 Divisional round Texans at Chiefs KC 51–31 98% +2
2019 Week 17 Packers at Lions GB 23–20 40% +60
2019 Week 16 Steelers at Jets NYJ 16–10 54% +46
2019 Week 15 Colts at Saints NO 34–7 93% +7
2019 Week 14 Seahawks at Rams LA 28–12 87% +13
2019 Week 12 Giants at Bears CHI 19–14 61% +39
2019 Week 11 Jaguars at Colts IND 33–13 92% +8
2019 Week 10 Vikings at Cowboys MIN 28–24 40% +60
2019 Week 9 Lions at Raiders OAK 31–24 39% +61
2019 Week 7 Patriots at Jets NE 33–0 97% +3
2019 Week 6 Texans at Chiefs HOU 31–24 71% +29
2019 Week 5 Broncos at Chargers DEN 20–13 35% +65
2019 Week 4 Browns at Ravens CLE 40–25 25% +75
2019 Week 3 Titans at Jaguars JAX 20–7 89% +11
2019 Week 2 Cowboys at Washington DAL 31–21 98% +2
2019 Week 1 Rams at Panthers LA 30–27 92% +8