luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

NFC Championship 2024 · January 26, 2025

Commanders at Eagles, NFC Championship 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Commanders 55–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:28 left): the Commanders converted 4th & 5, worth 13 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 23
Philadelphia Eagles 55

January 26, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6

Luck index +4 Eagles about even · −4 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 0, Eagles win 10.

  1. 1 WAS 41 PHI 43
  2. 2 WAS 17 PHI 23
  3. 3 WAS 31 PHI 40
  4. 4 WAS 22 PHI 33
  5. 5 WAS 10 PHI 24
  6. 6 WAS 16 PHI 33
  7. 7 WAS 17 PHI 37
  8. 8 WAS 34 PHI 57
  9. 9 WAS 12 PHI 40
  10. 10 WAS 16 PHI 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 4% of them, Eagles 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+0.3%
Commanders by 9–160.9%
Commanders by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Eagles by 1–87.7%
Eagles by 9–1616.9%
Eagles by 17+70.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 32, without the luck Eagles by 27.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 46 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Elliott, 54 yds missed · 62% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 42 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 9 for 47 yards, Eagles 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:21 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 1:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 16 yards +6% PHI +2.6 pts
Q2 1:51 False Start on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 1:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 1 yard 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q2 1:12 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 0:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Mike Sainristil), 10 yards +2% PHI +1.3 pts
Q2 0:21 Encroachment on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q4 13:43 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Jonathan Allen), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q4 12:58 Encroachment on the Commanders (Frankie Luvu), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q4 12:45 Encroachment on the Commanders (Frankie Luvu), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q4 12:35 Encroachment on the Commanders (Jonathan Allen), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q4 8:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Jeremy Chinn), 17 yards 0% PHI +1.8 pts
Q4 7:06 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Moro Ojomo), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q4 3:11 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Frankie Luvu), 3 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.6 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:48 The Commanders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q1 11:28 The Commanders converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +13% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q1 9:55 O. Zaccheaus dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 113 catchable balls before this +7% PHI WAS: Field goal
4 Q1 9:50 The Commanders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +9% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q1 5:54 The Commanders fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% PHI WAS: Field goal
6 Q2 7:05 The Commanders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% PHI WAS: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:14 The Eagles converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 31 flags in 4568 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215False Start on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 4809 snaps before, position avg 1 per 658 +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Daron Payne (WAS DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 0% · Eagles 100%

Final margin
Eagles by 32
Luck in points
4.3 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 27.7
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 4% · Eagles 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2024 games · Commanders · Eagles

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