Commanders 23 
Eagles 55 Replays agree · Eagles win 96% of replays 2024 NFL season · January 26, 2025
Conference championships 2024: who deserved to win
No winner of Conference championships was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Chiefs won 32–29 and take 93% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Commanders 23 Eagles 55 Replays agree · Eagles win 96% of replays 
Bills 29 
Chiefs 32 Replays agree · Chiefs win 93% of replays Off day for the Bills 41% to win a fresh game, 7% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. Conference championships 2024 upsets
Every betting favorite won this round.
Luck ranking, conference championships
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | W 32–29 vs Bills | 93% | +7 |
| 2 | Eagles | W 55–23 vs Commanders | 96% | +4 |
| 3 | Commanders | L 23–55 @ Eagles | 4% | −4 |
| 4 | Bills | L 29–32 @ Chiefs | 7% | −7 |