Commanders 23 
Eagles 55 Deserved · Eagles win 92% of replays 2024 NFL season · January 26, 2025
Conference championships 2024: who deserved to win
Every winner of Conference championships earned it. The closest call: the Chiefs won 32–29 and take 87% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Commanders 23 Eagles 55 Deserved · Eagles win 92% of replays 
Bills 29 
Chiefs 32 Deserved · Chiefs win 87% of replays Luck ranking, conference championships
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | W 32–29 vs Bills | 87% | +13 |
| 2 | Eagles | W 55–23 vs Commanders | 92% | +8 |
| 3 | Commanders | L 23–55 @ Eagles | 8% | −8 |
| 4 | Bills | L 29–32 @ Chiefs | 13% | −13 |