luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Rams, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Seahawks 28–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 12
Los Angeles Rams 28

December 8, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: Rams −1

Luck index +13 Rams about even · −13 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 1, Rams win 9.

  1. 1 SEA 37 LA 30
  2. 2 SEA 27 LA 29
  3. 3 SEA 23 LA 27
  4. 4 SEA 21 LA 27
  5. 5 SEA 17 LA 26
  6. 6 SEA 23 LA 35
  7. 7 SEA 26 LA 41
  8. 8 SEA 17 LA 36
  9. 9 SEA 21 LA 45
  10. 10 SEA 23 LA 53

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 13% of them, Rams 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+1.1%
Seahawks by 9–163.3%
Seahawks by 1–86.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Rams by 1–818.4%
Rams by 9–1623.7%
Rams by 17+45.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Rams by 16, without the luck Rams by 19.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 37 yds blocked · 91% expected
  • J. Myers, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 8 for 64 yards, Rams 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LA +0.8 pts
Q1 2:20 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Rasheem Green), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.6 pts
Q2 12:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Jadeveon Clowney), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.5 pts
Q2 3:03 Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams, 10 yards 0% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 1:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards +3% LA +1.4 pts
Q4 14:56 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q4 7:45 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% LA +1.1 pts
Q4 7:37 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.3 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% LA +0.2 pts
Q4 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards 0% LA +0.9 pts
Q4 1:47 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (David Moore), 10 yards 0% LA +0.8 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:11 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +4% SEA SEA: Field goal
2 Q1 9:20 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% LA SEA: Field goal
3 Q1 7:26 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:36 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:36 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% LA SEA: Punt
6 Q2 5:55 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% SEA SEA: Punt
7 Q3 13:05 Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +6% SEA SEA: Opp touchdown
8 Q3 5:45 G. Zuerlein had a 37-yard field goal blockedKicks · 91% expected for him +3% SEA LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Gerald Everett (LA TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Britt (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Willson (SEA TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mychal Kendricks (SEA LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 16
Luck in points
3.5 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 19.5
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 13% · Rams 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Seahawks · Rams

More from Week 14 2019