luckadjusted

Divisional round 2019 · January 12, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Chiefs, Divisional round 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Texans 51–31, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:07 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 31
Kansas City Chiefs 51

January 12, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10

Luck index +2 Chiefs about even · −2 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 0, Chiefs win 10.

  1. 1 HOU 37 KC 41
  2. 2 HOU 24 KC 34
  3. 3 HOU 33 KC 46
  4. 4 HOU 23 KC 40
  5. 5 HOU 17 KC 37
  6. 6 HOU 19 KC 42
  7. 7 HOU 14 KC 41
  8. 8 HOU 20 KC 50
  9. 9 HOU 3 KC 40
  10. 10 HOU 19 KC 65

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 2% of them, Chiefs 98%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.1%
Texans by 9–160.3%
Texans by 1–81.4%
Level after regulation0.3%
Chiefs by 1–83.9%
Chiefs by 9–1610.7%
Chiefs by 17+83.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 11.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds missed · 67% expected
  • H. Butker, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:48 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:07 The Texans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +17% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:13 Blocked punt by the TexansSpecial teams +12% HOU HOU: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 10:58 K. Fairbairn made 31-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +5% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 8:05 The Texans fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% KC HOU: Punt
6 Q2 6:37 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q2 3:44 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q2 0:50 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Jones (KC DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (KC FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Alex Okafor (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Martinas Rankin (KC T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (KC G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jordan Akins (HOU TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 2% · Chiefs 98%

Final margin
Chiefs by 20
Luck in points
8.1 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 11.9
Replay with same day's form
Texans 2% · Chiefs 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2019 games · Texans · Chiefs

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