luckadjusted

Divisional round 2019 · January 12, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Packers, Divisional round 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Seahawks 28–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Packers win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.7 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:42 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 7, worth 8 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 23
Green Bay Packers 28

January 12, 2020 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −4.5

Luck index +57 Packers lucky · −57 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Packers win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 27 GB 6
  2. 2 SEA 21 GB 7
  3. 3 SEA 23 GB 13
  4. 4 SEA 17 GB 10
  5. 5 SEA 27 GB 24
  6. 6 SEA 23 GB 21
  7. 7 SEA 26 GB 27
  8. 8 SEA 21 GB 27
  9. 9 SEA 20 GB 32
  10. 10 SEA 14 GB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 57% of them, Packers 43%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+10.2%
Seahawks by 9–1616.3%
Seahawks by 1–823.9%
Level after regulation7.2%
Packers by 1–821.9%
Packers by 9–1612.3%
Packers by 17+8.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 2.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 45 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Myers, 50 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:51 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:42 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:33 J. Myers made 45-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before +6% SEA SEA: Missed field goal
4 Q2 12:57 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% SEA SEA: Missed field goal
5 Q4 9:19 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% GB GB: Punt
6 Q4 6:27 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% SEA GB: Punt
7 Q4 3:22 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% GB SEA: Punt
8 Q4 2:19 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% GB GB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Iupati (SEA G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chris Carson (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mychal Kendricks (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 51% · Packers 49%

Final margin
Packers by 5
Luck in points
7.6 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 57% · Packers 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2019 games · Seahawks · Packers

More from Divisional round 2019