luckadjusted

Divisional round 2019 · January 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Ravens, Divisional round 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Ravens 28–12, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.7 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:01 left): the Ravens were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 28
Baltimore Ravens 12

January 11, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −10

Luck index +41 Titans lucky · −41 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 6, Ravens win 4.

  1. 1 TEN 36 BAL 12
  2. 2 TEN 33 BAL 17
  3. 3 TEN 33 BAL 23
  4. 4 TEN 31 BAL 24
  5. 5 TEN 27 BAL 23
  6. 6 TEN 21 BAL 19
  7. 7 TEN 28 BAL 31
  8. 8 TEN 13 BAL 20
  9. 9 TEN 21 BAL 33
  10. 10 TEN 21 BAL 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 59% of them, Ravens 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+14.8%
Titans by 9–1616.0%
Titans by 1–826.5%
Level after regulation2.9%
Ravens by 1–819.0%
Ravens by 9–1612.1%
Ravens by 17+8.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 11.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Tucker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:42 The Titans converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 15:00 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% TEN BAL: Punt
3 Q2 9:48 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% BAL BAL: Field goal
4 Q2 1:43 The Ravens converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
5 Q2 0:18 The Ravens converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% BAL BAL: Field goal
6 Q3 10:30 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +5% TEN BAL: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 10:01 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% TEN BAL: Turnover
8 Q3 8:37 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% TEN TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Skura (BAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 99% · Ravens 1%

Final margin
Titans by 16
Luck in points
5.0 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 11.0
Replay with same day's form
Titans 59% · Ravens 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2019 games · Titans · Ravens

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