luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Jaguars?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.18 points a game to the Jaguars since 2019, 14th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +0.35 points a game over 3 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Jaguars minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262+0.94 10th48 –
202517+0.77 10th8269 +2.82 (1)
202417−0.14 18th5553 –
202317+2.56 1st3765 –
202217+0.53 7th5058 −0.89 (2)
202117+0.57 12th6064 –
202016−1.33 29th6950 –
201916−2.00 29th9768 –

Biggest calls for the Jaguars

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 13 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 5 · 100 pts of win probability
  2. Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 7 · 55 pts of win probability
  3. Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 5 · 46 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 7 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 13 · 39 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 12 · 29 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 13 · 50 pts of win probability
  2. Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 10 · 37 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (D.J. Hayden), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 1 · 31 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 16 · 21 pts of win probability
  5. Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 11 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 7 · 19 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Jaguars?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.18 points a game to the Jaguars since 2019, 14th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: +0.35 points a game over 3 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Jacksonville Jaguars, every season