Referee calls · 2019–2026
Do refs favor the Seahawks?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.18 points a game to the Seahawks since 2019, 15th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −1.85 points a game over 7 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
Call luck, season by season
Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Seahawks minus the calls that hurt them.
Biggest calls for the Seahawks
- Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 9 · 25 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Davante Adams), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 13 · 23 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Tre Avery), 22 yards · 2023 Week 16 · 21 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 7 · 21 pts of win probability
- Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 5 · 19 pts of win probability
Biggest calls against
- Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 3 · 35 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 5 · 24 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 9 · 24 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 0 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 11 · 22 pts of win probability
- Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Marquise Blair), 15 yards · 2021 Week 7 · 19 pts of win probability
Questions
Do refs favor the Seahawks?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.18 points a game to the Seahawks since 2019, 15th of 32 teams.
What about the playoffs?
In the playoffs: −1.85 points a game over 7 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
How is this measured?
Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.
Is it more than chance?
Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.
All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Seattle Seahawks, every season