luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Buccaneers?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.11 points a game to the Buccaneers since 2019, 16th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +0.26 points a game over 10 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Buccaneers minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262+0.11 16th76 –
202517+0.76 11th6178 –
202417+1.12 6th6367 −0.37 (1)
202317+0.54 11th5958 +2.41 (2)
202217−1.22 30th5664 −2.66 (1)
202117−1.35 27th5649 +0.72 (2)
202016+1.95 3rd4770 −0.15 (4)
201916−0.96 23rd7671 –

Biggest calls for the Buccaneers

  1. Leverage on the Saints (Tanoh Kpassagnon), 15 yards · 2022 Week 13 · 35 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 1 · 31 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 10 · 30 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Titans (MyCole Pruitt), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 8 · 30 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Tetairoa McMillan), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 18 · 16 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 13 · 57 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Divisional round · 30 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 9 · 25 pts of win probability
  4. Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 20 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 8 · 24 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 17 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 8 · 23 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Buccaneers?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.11 points a game to the Buccaneers since 2019, 16th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: +0.26 points a game over 10 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Tampa Bay Buccaneers, every season