luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2026: game by game

The Buccaneers went 0–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–2.

Every game

How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Bengals L 27–33 4% −4
Week 2 vs Browns L 19–23 57% −57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+0.3+0.13
Judgment calls+0.2+0.10
3rd & 4th downs+0.2+0.10
Drops−0.5−0.24
Kicks−1.2−0.60
Fumble bounces−4.7−2.36