luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Referee · 2019–2026

Shawn Smith: flags and calls

Shawn Smith’s crews have worked 119 games since 2019: 7.3 judgment flags a game, about the same as the league average of 7.4, and 4.4 pre-snap flags. Their judgment calls were worth +2.8% of a win a game to the home team (league: +0.9%), each weighted by the moment it came.

Season by season

SeasonGamesJudgment flags per gamePre-snapToward home, a game
2019169.64.6+10.7%
2020166.63.1+4.6%
2021176.74.1+0.4%
2022166.44.5+6.9%
2023177.84.3−7.5%
2024166.66.2+2.9%
2025177.44.5+2.4%
202648.34.3+3.6%

The calls that swung games most

By the change in win probability they caused.

  1. Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play · CLE at BAL, 2022 Week 7 · 66 pts of win probability
  2. Illegal Contact on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · CLE at IND, 2023 Week 7 · 42 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 30 yards · NYJ at NYG, 2023 Week 8 · 39 pts of win probability
  4. Disqualification on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 15 yards · OAK at DEN, 2019 Week 17 · 25 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Keenan Allen), 10 yards, wiping out the play · LAC at MIN, 2023 Week 3 · 23 pts of win probability
  6. Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Tre Avery), 22 yards · SEA at TEN, 2023 Week 16 · 21 pts of win probability
  7. Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 19 yards, wiping out the play · LA at PIT, 2019 Week 10 · 21 pts of win probability
  8. Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 1 yard, wiping out the play · LV at NYJ, 2020 Week 13 · 21 pts of win probability

Every game

WeekGameResultWinner wins the replayLuck index
2026 Week 4 Cardinals at Giants NYG 36–24 41% +59
2026 Week 3 Falcons at Packers ATL 35–14 90% +10
2026 Week 2 Dolphins at 49ers SF 35–13 100% 0
2026 Week 1 Commanders at Eagles PHI 24–22 41% +59
Super Bowl LX (2026) Seahawks vs Patriots SEA 29–13 32% +68
2025 Divisional round Texans at Patriots NE 28–16 91% +9
2025 Week 18 Ravens at Steelers PIT 26–24 36% +64
2025 Week 17 Lions at Vikings MIN 23–10 61% +39
2025 Week 16 Buccaneers at Panthers CAR 23–20 70% +30
2025 Week 15 Jets at Jaguars JAX 48–20 99% +1
2025 Week 14 Broncos at Raiders DEN 24–17 73% +27
2025 Week 11 Commanders vs Dolphins MIA 16–13 57% +43
2025 Week 10 Browns at Jets NYJ 27–20 48% +52
2025 Week 9 Saints at Rams LA 34–10 98% +2
2025 Week 8 Bears at Ravens BAL 30–16 55% +45
2025 Week 6 Bills at Falcons ATL 24–14 41% +59
2025 Week 5 Titans at Cardinals TEN 22–21 51% +49
2025 Week 4 Browns at Lions DET 34–10 96% +4
2025 Week 3 Broncos at Chargers LAC 23–20 76% +24
2025 Week 2 49ers at Saints SF 26–21 77% +23
2025 Week 1 Cowboys at Eagles PHI 24–20 67% +33
2024 Divisional round Rams at Eagles PHI 28–22 71% +29
2024 Week 18 49ers at Cardinals ARI 47–24 91% +9
2024 Week 17 Titans at Jaguars JAX 20–13 72% +28
2024 Week 16 Eagles at Commanders WAS 36–33 55% +45
2024 Week 15 Falcons at Raiders ATL 15–9 87% +13
2024 Week 13 Dolphins at Packers GB 30–17 89% +11
2024 Week 12 Chiefs at Panthers KC 30–27 95% +5
2024 Week 11 Rams at Patriots LA 28–22 96% +4
2024 Week 10 49ers at Buccaneers SF 23–20 86% +14
2024 Week 9 Colts at Vikings MIN 21–13 90% +10
2024 Week 8 Ravens at Browns CLE 29–24 1% +99
2024 Week 7 Jets at Steelers PIT 37–15 65% +35
2024 Week 5 Giants at Seahawks NYG 29–20 33% +67
2024 Week 4 Chiefs at Chargers KC 17–10 96% +4
2024 Week 3 Jaguars at Bills BUF 47–10 99% +1
2024 Week 1 Titans at Bears CHI 24–17 36% +64
2023 AFC Championship Chiefs at Ravens KC 17–10 71% +29
2023 Week 18 Cowboys at Commanders DAL 38–10 99% +1
2023 Week 17 Raiders at Colts IND 23–20 60% +40
2023 Week 16 Seahawks at Titans SEA 20–17 61% +39
2023 Week 15 Ravens at Jaguars BAL 23–7 92% +8
2023 Week 13 Broncos at Texans HOU 22–17 41% +59
2023 Week 12 Rams at Cardinals LA 37–14 98% +2
2023 Week 11 Eagles at Chiefs PHI 21–17 45% +55
2023 Week 10 Lions at Chargers DET 41–38 79% +21
2023 Week 9 Vikings at Falcons MIN 31–28 60% +40
2023 Week 8 Jets at Giants NYJ 13–10 84% +16
2023 Week 7 Browns at Colts CLE 39–38 10% +90
2023 Week 5 Jaguars vs Bills JAX 25–20 14% +86
2023 Week 4 Bengals at Titans TEN 27–3 45% +55
2023 Week 3 Chargers at Vikings LAC 28–24 48% +52
2023 Week 2 Dolphins at Patriots MIA 24–17 88% +12
2023 Week 1 Rams at Seahawks LA 30–13 68% +32
2022 Wild Card Chargers at Jaguars JAX 31–30 75% +25
2022 Week 16 Texans at Titans HOU 19–14 35% +65
2022 Week 15 Cowboys at Jaguars JAX 40–34 36% +64
2022 Week 14 Patriots at Cardinals NE 27–13 81% +19
2022 Week 13 Seahawks at Rams SEA 27–23 90% +10
2022 Week 12 Packers at Eagles PHI 40–33 66% +34
2022 Week 11 Raiders at Broncos LV 22–16 55% +45
2022 Week 10 Chargers at 49ers SF 22–16 92% +8
2022 Week 8 Patriots at Jets NE 22–17 39% +61
2022 Week 7 Browns at Ravens BAL 23–20 39% +61
2022 Week 6 Buccaneers at Steelers PIT 20–18 13% +87
2022 Week 5 49ers at Panthers SF 37–15 84% +16
2022 Week 4 Commanders at Cowboys DAL 25–10 85% +15
2022 Week 3 Chiefs at Colts IND 20–17 10% +90
2022 Week 2 Titans at Bills BUF 41–7 99% +1
2022 Week 1 Raiders at Chargers LAC 24–19 92% +8
2021 Wild Card Steelers at Chiefs KC 42–21 99% +1
2021 Week 18 Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 38–30 84% +16
2021 Week 17 Dolphins at Titans TEN 34–3 88% +12
2021 Week 16 Bills at Patriots BUF 33–21 77% +23
2021 Week 15 Chiefs at Chargers KC 34–28 75% +25
2021 Week 14 Falcons at Panthers ATL 29–21 65% +35
2021 Week 12 Buccaneers at Colts TB 38–31 91% +9
2021 Week 11 Ravens at Bears BAL 16–13 63% +37
2021 Week 10 Rams at 49ers SF 31–10 49% +51
2021 Week 9 Packers at Chiefs KC 13–7 67% +33
2021 Week 8 Dolphins at Bills BUF 26–11 92% +8
2021 Week 6 Seahawks at Steelers PIT 23–20 70% +30
2021 Week 5 Saints at Washington NO 33–22 35% +65
2021 Week 4 Lions at Bears CHI 24–14 73% +27
2021 Week 3 Cardinals at Jaguars ARI 31–19 92% +8
2021 Week 2 Rams at Colts LA 27–24 31% +69
2021 Week 1 Ravens at Raiders LV 33–27 69% +31
2020 Wild Card Browns at Steelers CLE 48–37 51% +49
2020 Week 17 Jaguars at Colts IND 28–14 97% +3
2020 Week 15 Bears at Vikings CHI 33–27 39% +61
2020 Week 14 Steelers at Bills BUF 26–15 76% +24
2020 Week 13 Raiders at Jets LV 31–28 73% +27
2020 Week 12 Texans at Lions HOU 41–25 88% +12
2020 Week 11 Bengals at Washington WAS 20–9 89% +11
2020 Week 10 Jaguars at Packers GB 24–20 88% +12
2020 Week 9 Seahawks at Bills BUF 44–34 74% +26
2020 Week 7 49ers at Patriots SF 33–6 84% +16
2020 Week 6 Ravens at Eagles BAL 30–28 65% +35
2020 Week 5 Rams at Washington LA 30–10 99% +1
2020 Week 4 Saints at Lions NO 35–29 69% +31
2020 Week 3 Texans at Steelers PIT 28–21 71% +29
2020 Week 2 Bengals at Browns CLE 35–30 98% +2
2020 Week 1 Jets at Bills BUF 27–17 81% +19
2019 Wild Card Seahawks at Eagles SEA 17–9 68% +32
2019 Week 17 Raiders at Broncos DEN 16–15 14% +86
2019 Week 15 Eagles at Washington PHI 37–27 30% +70
2019 Week 14 Ravens at Bills BAL 24–17 97% +3
2019 Week 13 Saints at Falcons NO 26–18 81% +19
2019 Week 12 Jaguars at Titans TEN 42–20 94% +6
2019 Week 11 Bengals at Raiders OAK 17–10 93% +7
2019 Week 10 Rams at Steelers PIT 17–12 22% +78
2019 Week 8 Panthers at 49ers SF 51–13 99% +1
2019 Week 7 Chiefs at Broncos KC 30–6 98% +2
2019 Week 6 Washington at Dolphins WAS 17–16 88% +12
2019 Week 5 Falcons at Texans HOU 53–32 64% +36
2019 Week 4 Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 27–10 43% +57
2019 Week 3 Rams at Browns LA 20–13 81% +19
2019 Week 2 Bills at Giants BUF 28–14 52% +48
2019 Week 1 Colts at Chargers LAC 30–24 63% +37