luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Eagles, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Eagles 30–28, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:55 left): the Eagles’ two-point try failed, worth 14 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 30
Philadelphia Eagles 28

October 18, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Ravens −10.5

Luck index +35 Ravens lucky · −35 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Eagles win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 34 PHI 6
  2. 2 BAL 53 PHI 35
  3. 3 BAL 44 PHI 31
  4. 4 BAL 26 PHI 17
  5. 5 BAL 32 PHI 27
  6. 6 BAL 30 PHI 27
  7. 7 BAL 24 PHI 26
  8. 8 BAL 23 PHI 30
  9. 9 BAL 9 PHI 21
  10. 10 BAL 17 PHI 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 65% of them, Eagles 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+20.8%
Ravens by 9–1618.6%
Ravens by 1–823.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Eagles by 1–816.6%
Eagles by 9–1611.3%
Eagles by 17+7.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 2, without the luck Eagles by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Elliott, 52 yds missed · 64% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 12 for 132 yards, Eagles 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:56 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q1 3:21 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 8:11 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q2 7:41 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% PHI +1.2 pts
Q2 7:12 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% PHI +1.4 pts
Q2 2:44 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.3 pts
Q2 0:04 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Calais Campbell), 15 yards, wiping out the play +6% PHI +4.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens (Nick Boyle), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 13:26 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 9:27 False Start on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q4 14:25 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Jihad Ward), 3 yards +1% PHI +1.9 pts
Q4 8:29 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% PHI +2.7 pts
Q4 5:20 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards 0% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 3:42 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 10 yards +3% PHI +1.0 pts
Q4 3:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 49 yards +9% PHI +2.9 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:57 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:09 The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:21 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Ravens, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% PHI BAL: Punt
4 Q1 3:05 The Eagles fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL PHI: Punt
5 Q2 9:41 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% BAL BAL: Punt
6 Q2 0:04 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Calais Campbell), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1218 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +6% PHI PHI: Missed field goal
7 Q4 3:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 49 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1374 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:55 The Eagles’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +14% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeSean Jackson (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Reagor (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Pryor (PHI G/T), out · 0.1 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 59% · Eagles 41%

Final margin
Ravens by 2
Luck in points
3.9 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 65% · Eagles 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Ravens · Eagles

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