luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Eagles, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Eagles 30–28 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 15.3 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:55 left): the Eagles’ two-point try failed, worth 14 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 30
Philadelphia Eagles 28

October 18, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Ravens −10.5

Luck index +35 Ravens lucky · −35 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Eagles win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 38 PHI 10
  2. 2 BAL 34 PHI 17
  3. 3 BAL 22 PHI 9
  4. 4 BAL 22 PHI 12
  5. 5 BAL 26 PHI 20
  6. 6 BAL 27 PHI 25
  7. 7 BAL 20 PHI 23
  8. 8 BAL 19 PHI 26
  9. 9 BAL 23 PHI 37
  10. 10 BAL 15 PHI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 65% of them, Eagles 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+21.9%
Ravens by 9–1618.2%
Ravens by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation2.3%
Eagles by 1–817.6%
Eagles by 9–1610.2%
Eagles by 17+6.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 5.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Elliott, 52 yds missed · 65% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:30 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +4% BAL PHI: Punt
2 Q1 11:57 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:09 The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:05 The Eagles fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL PHI: Punt
5 Q2 0:04 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Calais Campbell), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1218 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +6% PHI PHI: Missed field goal
6 Q3 4:32 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 49 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1374 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:55 The Eagles’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +14% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeSean Jackson (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Reagor (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Pryor (PHI G/T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 86% · Eagles 14%

Final margin
Ravens by 2
Luck in points
3.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 65% · Eagles 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Ravens · Eagles

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