luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Vikings, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Falcons stole one. They beat the Vikings 40–23, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.9 points to the Falcons.

The Falcons won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:08 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 40
Minnesota Vikings 23

October 18, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3.5

Luck index +90 Falcons very lucky · −90 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 ATL 37 MIN 30
  2. 2 ATL 10 MIN 13
  3. 3 ATL 27 MIN 32
  4. 4 ATL 12 MIN 20
  5. 5 ATL 26 MIN 37
  6. 6 ATL 14 MIN 27
  7. 7 ATL 19 MIN 34
  8. 8 ATL 14 MIN 34
  9. 9 ATL 13 MIN 37
  10. 10 ATL 17 MIN 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Falcons won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

50 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Falcons offenseEPA per play gained +0.30 +0.10 better by 0.20
Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed −0.20 +0.17 better by 0.38
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained −0.20 +0.14 worse by 0.34
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed +0.30 +0.08 worse by 0.22

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 10% of them, Vikings 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+0.9%
Falcons by 9–162.4%
Falcons by 1–86.2%
Level after regulation1.7%
Vikings by 1–816.0%
Vikings by 9–1621.3%
Vikings by 17+51.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 5.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 50 yds made · 76% expected
  • Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 47 yds made · 81% expected
  • Y. Koo, 43 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:08 The Falcons converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:45 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% ATL MIN: Punt
3 Q1 5:36 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% ATL ATL: Field goal
4 Q1 1:53 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +3% ATL MIN: Punt
5 Q2 11:48 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +6% ATL MIN: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 11:44 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +5% ATL MIN: Turnover
7 Q2 9:49 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Vikings (Jeff Gladney), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 293 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +3% ATL ATL: Punt
8 Q2 5:51 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% ATL MIN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Holton Hill (MIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dru Samia (MIN G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Darqueze Dennard (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (ATL DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 91% · Vikings 9%

Final margin
Falcons by 17
Luck in points
11.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 10% · Vikings 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Falcons · Vikings

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