luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Giants, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat Washington 20–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 9 of 10. Washington had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.4 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the Giants were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:41 left): Return touchdown by the Giants, worth 82 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Washington Football Team 19
New York Giants 20

October 18, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −2

Luck index +14 Giants about even · −14 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 1, Giants win 9.

  1. 1 WAS 28 NYG 24
  2. 2 WAS 14 NYG 16
  3. 3 WAS 16 NYG 20
  4. 4 WAS 17 NYG 24
  5. 5 WAS 16 NYG 24
  6. 6 WAS 3 NYG 13
  7. 7 WAS 7 NYG 20
  8. 8 WAS 7 NYG 23
  9. 9 WAS 3 NYG 23
  10. 10 WAS 0 NYG 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 14% of them, Giants 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+0.5%
Washington by 9–163.7%
Washington by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation2.2%
Giants by 1–829.6%
Giants by 9–1624.8%
Giants by 17+30.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 2.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Gano, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:58 Washington converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
2 Q1 8:59 D. Hopkins missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before +10% NYG WAS: Turnover
3 Q2 1:11 Washington converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:40 Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q4 9:07 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% NYG WAS: Field goal
6 Q4 3:41 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedWashington fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +82% NYG WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:37 Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:36 Washington’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffside on Free Kick on Washington (Khaleke Hudson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 118 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +19% NYG WAS: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Steven Sims (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Matthew Ioannidis (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 76% · Giants 24%

Final margin
Giants by 1
Luck in points
3.6 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Washington 14% · Giants 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Washington · Giants

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