Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Washington at Giants, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?
The Giants beat Washington 20–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 9 of 10.
An off day for Washington: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants it would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Giants were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:41 left): Return touchdown by the Giants, worth 51 points of win probability to the Giants.
Final
 Washington Football Team | 19 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Giants about even · −13 Washington
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington wins 1, Giants win 9.
- 1 WAS 14 NYG 7
- 2 WAS 7 NYG 9
- 3 WAS 0 NYG 3
- 4 WAS 7 NYG 13
- 5 WAS 12 NYG 20
- 6 WAS 10 NYG 20
- 7 WAS 7 NYG 20
- 8 WAS 7 NYG 23
- 9 WAS 7 NYG 26
- 10 WAS 13 NYG 38
Your call
Did the Giants earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Washington
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants it would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for Washington: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | −0.01 | better by 0.20 |
| Washington defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.15 | better by 0.01 |
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.07 | better by 0.08 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.15 | worse by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington wins 13% of them, Giants 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington by 17+ | 0.6% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 9.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 28.4% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 26.6% |
| Giants by 17+ | 31.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Hopkins, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
- G. Gano, 33 yds made · 96% expected
- D. Hopkins, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- G. Gano, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- D. Hopkins, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Washington 8 for 50 yards, Giants 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:40 | Illegal Motion on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:57 | Roughing the Passer on Washington (Tim Settle), 6 yards | +1% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:20 | Running Into the Kicker on the Giants (Austin Johnson), 5 yards | +1% WAS +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (Blake Martinez), 5 yards | 0% WAS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:34 | Unnecessary Roughness on Washington, 15 yards | +5% NYG +1.8 pts |
| Q3 11:46 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% WAS +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:30 | Encroachment on Washington (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Kendall Fuller), 4 yards | +2% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Kyler Fackrell), 15 yards | +7% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q4 2:21 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:36 | Offside on Free Kick on Washington (Khaleke Hudson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:35 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% NYG +0.6 pts |
Washington penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:59 | D. Hopkins missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before | +10% NYG | WAS: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 1:11 | Washington converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +9% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Kyler Fackrell), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 905 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 | +7% WAS | WAS: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 13:40 | Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 5:46 | Washington converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Opp touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:41 | Washington fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams | +51% NYG | WAS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:37 | Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:36 | Washington’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffside on Free Kick on Washington (Khaleke Hudson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 118 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 | +19% NYG | WAS: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out · 0.2 pts
- Steven Sims (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Matthew Ioannidis (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington 77% · Giants 23%
- Final margin
- Giants by 1
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington 13% · Giants 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · 
Washington · 
Giants
More from Week 6 2020
- Falcons at Vikings ATL 40–23 · replay 9% for the winner
- Ravens at Eagles BAL 30–28 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 23–16 · replay 20% for the winner
- Bengals at Colts IND 31–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 38–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- Broncos at Patriots DEN 18–12 · replay 47% for the winner
- Lions at Jaguars DET 34–16 · replay 84% for the winner
- Texans at Titans TEN 42–36 · replay 56% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 24–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Packers at Buccaneers TB 38–10 · replay 81% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers SF 24–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills KC 26–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 38–10 · replay 86% for the winner