luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Steelers, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Browns 38–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:05 left): Return touchdown by the Steelers, worth 16 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Cleveland Browns 7
Pittsburgh Steelers 38

October 18, 2020 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −3

Luck index +15 Steelers about even · −15 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 2, Steelers win 8.

  1. 1 CLE 33 PIT 20
  2. 2 CLE 31 PIT 27
  3. 3 CLE 17 PIT 19
  4. 4 CLE 20 PIT 25
  5. 5 CLE 16 PIT 23
  6. 6 CLE 13 PIT 23
  7. 7 CLE 13 PIT 27
  8. 8 CLE 6 PIT 23
  9. 9 CLE 10 PIT 33
  10. 10 CLE 10 PIT 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 15% of them, Steelers 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+1.1%
Browns by 9–163.4%
Browns by 1–89.3%
Level after regulation1.7%
Steelers by 1–821.1%
Steelers by 9–1623.8%
Steelers by 17+39.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 31, without the luck Steelers by 28.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Browns 7 for 55 yards, Steelers 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:11 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 13:28 Face Mask on the Browns (Sheldrick Redwine), 15 yards +4% PIT +1.6 pts
Q2 9:02 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +2% PIT +1.3 pts
Q2 7:41 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.4 pts
Q2 4:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 2:40 Illegal Contact on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% CLE +4.4 pts
Q2 0:40 Illegal Formation on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q2 0:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Jarvis Landry), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% PIT +1.2 pts
Q3 13:28 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.4 pts
Q3 10:52 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards 0% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 8:55 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Eric Ebron), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% CLE +2.2 pts
Q4 6:07 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CLE +1.7 pts
Q4 1:57 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.5 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:24 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% PIT PIT: Field goal
2 Q1 10:42 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% CLE PIT: Field goal
3 Q1 9:05 Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +16% PIT PIT: Opp touchdown
4 Q1 1:16 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +3% CLE PIT: Punt
5 Q2 14:18 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +3% PIT CLE: Punt
6 Q2 13:28 Face Mask on the Browns (Sheldrick Redwine), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 625 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +4% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:40 Illegal Contact on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1381 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +3% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Jarvis Landry), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1244 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +3% PIT PIT: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Diontae Johnson (PIT WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • David DeCastro (PIT G), out · 0.7 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Karl Joseph (CLE S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Steelers 100%

Final margin
Steelers by 31
Luck in points
2.4 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 28.6
Replay with same day's form
Browns 15% · Steelers 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Browns · Steelers

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