luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Colts, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Bengals 31–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10.5 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Colts were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:46 left): the Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 28 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 27
Indianapolis Colts 31

October 18, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −7.5

Luck index +8 Colts about even · −8 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 22 IND 16
  2. 2 CIN 24 IND 27
  3. 3 CIN 19 IND 24
  4. 4 CIN 23 IND 31
  5. 5 CIN 16 IND 27
  6. 6 CIN 16 IND 30
  7. 7 CIN 27 IND 45
  8. 8 CIN 23 IND 44
  9. 9 CIN 10 IND 37
  10. 10 CIN 10 IND 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 8% of them, Colts 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.5%
Bengals by 9–161.9%
Bengals by 1–85.3%
Level after regulation1.2%
Colts by 1–817.8%
Colts by 9–1620.4%
Colts by 17+52.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 15.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • R. Bullock, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • R. Bullock, 48 yds missed · 79% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 40 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:25 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1177 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +9% CIN CIN: End of half
2 Q2 0:20 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1177 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +10% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 Q4 13:46 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% IND CIN: Punt
5 Q4 10:24 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
6 Q4 8:06 R. Bullock missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 12 of 16 from 45+ before +21% IND CIN: Turnover
7 Q4 1:48 The Bengals converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +20% CIN CIN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:46 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +28% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Malik Hooker (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mo Alie-Cox (IND TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Sam Hubbard (CIN DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Uzomah (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 1% · Colts 99%

Final margin
Colts by 4
Luck in points
11.1 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 15.1
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 8% · Colts 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Bengals · Colts

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