luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Cowboys at Commanders, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Commanders 38–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 6.2 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:33 left): B. Aubrey had a 32-yard field goal blocked, worth 17 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 38
Washington Commanders 10

January 7, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Cowboys −13

Luck index +1 Cowboys about even · −1 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Commanders win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 38 WAS 0
  2. 2 DAL 42 WAS 10
  3. 3 DAL 36 WAS 7
  4. 4 DAL 31 WAS 6
  5. 5 DAL 38 WAS 16
  6. 6 DAL 23 WAS 3
  7. 7 DAL 26 WAS 10
  8. 8 DAL 23 WAS 10
  9. 9 DAL 26 WAS 16
  10. 10 DAL 33 WAS 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 99% of them, Commanders 1%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+89.7%
Cowboys by 9–167.9%
Cowboys by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.1%
Commanders by 1–80.4%
Commanders by 9–160.1%
Commanders by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 29.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 32 yds blocked · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 36 yds missed · 91% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 50 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:53 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +10% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 3:33 B. Aubrey had a 32-yard field goal blockedKicks · 95% expected for him +17% WAS DAL: Turnover
3 Q1 2:41 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +14% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:11 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q2 6:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Cody Barton), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3563 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:00 The Commanders converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +9% WAS WAS: Turnover
8 Q2 1:47 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% DAL WAS: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kendall Fuller (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (WAS T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kamren Curl (WAS SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Casey Toohill (WAS DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jamin Davis (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Percy Butler (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Smith (DAL T), out · 1.5 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Commanders 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 28
Luck in points
1.6 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 29.6
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 99% · Commanders 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Cowboys · Commanders

More from Week 18 2023