luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Buccaneers at Panthers, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 9–0 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 1.5 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:33 left): Illegal Formation on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9
Carolina Panthers 0

January 7, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −5

Luck index +21 Buccaneers about even · −21 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 TB 27 CAR 3
  2. 2 TB 22 CAR 3
  3. 3 TB 23 CAR 10
  4. 4 TB 13 CAR 3
  5. 5 TB 17 CAR 10
  6. 6 TB 6 CAR 0
  7. 7 TB 6 CAR 3
  8. 8 TB 10 CAR 7
  9. 9 TB 12 CAR 15
  10. 10 TB 10 CAR 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 79% of them, Panthers 21%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+19.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1627.0%
Buccaneers by 1–828.3%
Level after regulation5.5%
Panthers by 1–812.9%
Panthers by 9–165.3%
Panthers by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 7.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 57 yds made · 52% expected
  • M. Wright, 52 yds missed · 63% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 39 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:18 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% TB TB: Punt
2 Q1 1:08 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TB TB: Punt
3 Q1 0:26 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% CAR TB: Punt
4 Q2 2:13 The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% TB TB: Punt
5 Q2 0:04 C. McLaughlin made 57-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 36 of 50 from 45+ before +9% TB TB: Punt
6 Q3 2:23 The Panthers converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +11% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
7 Q3 0:45 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +12% TB CAR: Missed field goal
8 Q4 6:33 Illegal Formation on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +18% TB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dicaprio Bootle (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jonathan Mingo (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin McCray (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 16% · Panthers 84%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 9
Luck in points
16.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 79% · Panthers 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Buccaneers · Panthers

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