luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Browns at Colts, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns stole one. They beat the Colts 39–38, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 8.7 points to the Browns.

The Browns won on an off day: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Browns were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:47 left): Illegal Contact on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 61 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 39
Indianapolis Colts 38

October 22, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Browns −3.5

Luck index +89 Browns very lucky · −89 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 27 IND 20
  2. 2 CLE 19 IND 22
  3. 3 CLE 6 IND 12
  4. 4 CLE 35 IND 44
  5. 5 CLE 10 IND 22
  6. 6 CLE 9 IND 24
  7. 7 CLE 3 IND 22
  8. 8 CLE 17 IND 40
  9. 9 CLE 6 IND 33
  10. 10 CLE 17 IND 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Browns won on an off day

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

44 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Browns offenseEPA per play gained −0.12 +0.05 worse by 0.17
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed +0.25 +0.04 worse by 0.21
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.25 +0.03 better by 0.22
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed −0.12 +0.07 better by 0.18

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 11% of them, Colts 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+1.0%
Browns by 9–163.1%
Browns by 1–86.8%
Level after regulation1.1%
Colts by 1–814.6%
Colts by 9–1620.0%
Colts by 17+53.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 18.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 60 yds blocked · 57% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 54 yds made · 63% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 54 yds made · 63% expected
  • M. Gay, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 58 yds made · 57% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:12 The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +20% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:47 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +18% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:50 The Colts fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +31% CLE IND: Punt
4 Q3 10:30 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedThe Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% CLE IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:14 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% IND CLE: Field goal
6 Q4 0:47 Illegal Contact on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +61% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:19 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +41% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:15 The Browns’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +52% IND CLE: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Dallis Flowers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Grover Stewart (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kylen Granson (IND TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jelani Woods (IND TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sione Takitaki (CLE LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 2% · Colts 98%

Final margin
Browns by 1
Luck in points
19.4 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 18.4
Replay with same day's form
Browns 11% · Colts 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Browns · Colts

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