Super Bowl 2025 · February 8, 2026
Seahawks vs Patriots, Super Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Patriots 29–13, but the Patriots played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.0 points to the Seahawks.
The Seahawks won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 63% favorites.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 29 |
|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Seahawks very lucky · −70 Patriots
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 3, Patriots win 7.
- 1 SEA 33 NE 17
- 2 SEA 19 NE 10
- 3 SEA 29 NE 26
- 4 SEA 29 NE 31
- 5 SEA 26 NE 30
- 6 SEA 15 NE 22
- 7 SEA 17 NE 27
- 8 SEA 36 NE 51
- 9 SEA 16 NE 36
- 10 SEA 6 NE 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Seahawks won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.14 | worse by 0.14 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.34 | +0.04 | better by 0.37 |
| Patriots offenseEPA per play gained | −0.34 | +0.15 | worse by 0.49 |
| Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.08 | better by 0.09 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 30% of them, Patriots 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 4.8% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 8.2% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.6% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 24.2% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Patriots by 17+ | 24.6% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Seahawks by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 21.8.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Myers, 39 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Myers, 41 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Myers, 41 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Myers, 26 yds made · 99% expected
When it happened
Patriots’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:07 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 12:04 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +5% NE | SEA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 5:09 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedK. Walker dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 151 catchable balls before this | +8% NE | SEA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 4:19 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% NE | NE: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 7:46 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedD. Douglas dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 162 catchable balls before this | +7% SEA | NE: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 3:49 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedK. Boutte dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 98 catchable balls before this | +6% SEA | NE: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 0:16 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% SEA | NE: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:10 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% NE | NE: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 100% · Patriots 0%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 16
- Luck in points
- 5.8 for the Patriots
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 21.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 30% · Patriots 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Super Bowl 2025 games · 
Seahawks · 
Patriots