luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Giants at Seahawks, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Seahawks 29–20, but the replays lean toward the Seahawks: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 33 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:33 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks, worth 45 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

New York Giants 29
Seattle Seahawks 20

October 6, 2024 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −7

Luck index +67 Giants very lucky · −67 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Seahawks win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 38 SEA 21
  2. 2 NYG 30 SEA 22
  3. 3 NYG 23 SEA 20
  4. 4 NYG 24 SEA 26
  5. 5 NYG 30 SEA 35
  6. 6 NYG 10 SEA 17
  7. 7 NYG 14 SEA 26
  8. 8 NYG 7 SEA 22
  9. 9 NYG 6 SEA 25
  10. 10 NYG 10 SEA 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 33% of them, Seahawks 67%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+5.1%
Giants by 9–168.9%
Giants by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation4.0%
Seahawks by 1–825.1%
Seahawks by 9–1619.6%
Seahawks by 17+22.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.5 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 9, without the luck Giants by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Myers, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • G. Joseph, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Joseph, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 47 yds blocked · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 2 for 20 yards, Seahawks 6 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:14 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 3:38 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 5 yards +3% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 12:11 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 15 yards +4% SEA +1.4 pts
Q3 11:56 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 9:54 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +1.1 pts
Q4 4:45 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 2:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants (Darius Muasau), 5 yards +5% SEA +0.5 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:54 The Giants converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 2:33 The Giants fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +45% SEA NYG: Punt
3 Q2 0:29 W. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 120 catchable balls before this +6% SEA NYG: Field goal
4 Q3 12:17 The Seahawks fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG SEA: Field goal
5 Q3 0:49 G. Joseph made a 31-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +5% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q4 1:55 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% SEA NYG: Punt
7 Q4 1:08 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +15% NYG SEA: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 1:05 J. Myers had a 47-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him, 36 of 51 from 45+ before +32% NYG SEA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Boye Mafe (SEA LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Devin Singletary (NYG RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 62% · Seahawks 38%

Final margin
Giants by 9
Luck in points
7.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Giants 33% · Seahawks 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Giants · Seahawks

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