luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Cardinals?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.07 points a game to the Cardinals since 2019, 17th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +4.12 points a game over 1 game, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Cardinals minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262−1.97 22nd85 –
202517−0.86 25th7256 –
202417−0.28 21st6159 –
202317+0.90 5th6760 –
202217+0.14 13th6257 –
202117−0.61 23rd7365 +4.12 (1)
202016+0.16 14th6262 –
201916+1.37 9th7577 –

Biggest calls for the Cardinals

  1. Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 3 · 77 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 2 · 26 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 12 · 25 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 8 · 24 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 6 yards · 2025 Week 3 · 23 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Jordan Hicks), 27 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 1 · 44 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 4 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 2 · 42 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 2 · 35 pts of win probability
  4. Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 1 · 31 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 10 · 30 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Cardinals?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.07 points a game to the Cardinals since 2019, 17th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: +4.12 points a game over 1 game, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Arizona Cardinals, every season