luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Referee · 2019–2026

Scott Novak: flags and calls

Scott Novak’s crews have worked 116 games since 2019: 7.2 judgment flags a game, about the same as the league average of 7.4, and 4.8 pre-snap flags. Their judgment calls were worth −0.3% of a win a game to the home team (league: +0.9%), each weighted by the moment it came.

Season by season

SeasonGamesJudgment flags per gamePre-snapToward home, a game
2019157.43.9+5.6%
2020166.14.1+2.9%
2021168.44.9+0.4%
2022167.44.7−3.0%
2023165.44.3−4.6%
2024166.46.3+2.0%
2025177.04.8−2.2%
2026415.56.5−12.3%

The calls that swung games most

By the change in win probability they caused.

  1. Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play · CIN at JAX, 2023 Week 13 · 50 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 5 yards, wiping out the play · BAL at PIT, 2021 Week 13 · 49 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play · DET at ARI, 2020 Week 3 · 46 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 7 yards, wiping out the play · MIN at TB, 2026 Week 3 · 40 pts of win probability
  5. Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the play · DAL at MIN, 2021 Week 8 · 38 pts of win probability
  6. Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play · PHI at LAC, 2025 Week 14 · 28 pts of win probability
  7. Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 10 yards, wiping out the play · JAX at ARI, 2025 Week 12 · 23 pts of win probability
  8. Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kyle Rudolph), 10 yards, wiping out the play · MIN at CHI, 2020 Week 10 · 22 pts of win probability

Every game

WeekGameResultWinner wins the replayLuck index
2026 Week 4 Chargers at Seahawks SEA 30–23 81% +19
2026 Week 3 Vikings at Buccaneers MIN 23–16 73% +27
2026 Week 2 Packers at Jets GB 20–17 36% +64
2026 Week 1 Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 87% +13
2025 Week 18 Titans at Jaguars JAX 41–7 100% 0
2025 Week 17 Buccaneers at Dolphins MIA 20–17 64% +36
2025 Week 16 Raiders at Texans HOU 23–21 53% +47
2025 Week 15 Vikings at Cowboys MIN 34–26 33% +67
2025 Week 14 Eagles at Chargers LAC 22–19 51% +49
2025 Week 13 Rams at Panthers CAR 31–28 19% +81
2025 Week 12 Jaguars at Cardinals JAX 27–24 33% +67
2025 Week 11 Packers at Giants GB 27–20 90% +10
2025 Week 10 Lions at Commanders DET 44–22 85% +15
2025 Week 9 Ravens at Dolphins BAL 28–6 95% +5
2025 Week 8 Jets at Bengals NYJ 39–38 71% +29
2025 Week 7 Saints at Bears CHI 26–14 96% +4
2025 Week 5 Vikings vs Browns MIN 21–17 52% +48
2025 Week 4 Commanders at Falcons ATL 34–27 78% +22
2025 Week 3 Colts at Titans IND 41–20 94% +6
2025 Week 2 Seahawks at Steelers SEA 31–17 89% +11
2025 Week 1 Cardinals at Saints ARI 20–13 38% +62
2024 Week 18 Browns at Ravens BAL 35–10 100% 0
2024 Week 17 Seahawks at Bears SEA 6–3 84% +16
2024 Week 16 49ers at Dolphins MIA 29–17 43% +57
2024 Week 15 Buccaneers at Chargers TB 40–17 94% +6
2024 Week 14 Bengals at Cowboys CIN 27–20 91% +9
2024 Week 12 Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 16–6 39% +61
2024 Week 11 Jaguars at Lions DET 52–6 100% 0
2024 Week 10 Bills at Colts BUF 30–20 91% +9
2024 Week 9 Cowboys at Falcons ATL 27–21 82% +18
2024 Week 8 Giants at Steelers PIT 26–18 86% +14
2024 Week 7 Texans at Packers GB 24–22 75% +26
2024 Week 5 Jets vs Vikings MIN 23–17 90% +10
2024 Week 4 Patriots at 49ers SF 30–13 99% +1
2024 Week 3 Eagles at Saints PHI 15–12 93% +7
2024 Week 2 Giants at Commanders WAS 21–18 89% +11
2024 Week 1 Raiders at Chargers LAC 22–10 60% +40
2023 Week 18 Chiefs at Chargers KC 13–12 80% +20
2023 Week 17 Titans at Texans HOU 26–3 92% +8
2023 Week 15 49ers at Cardinals SF 45–29 99% +1
2023 Week 14 Rams at Ravens BAL 37–31 88% +12
2023 Week 13 Bengals at Jaguars CIN 34–31 65% +35
2023 Week 12 Patriots at Giants NYG 10–7 55% +45
2023 Week 11 Bears at Lions DET 31–26 65% +35
2023 Week 10 Packers at Steelers PIT 23–19 49% +51
2023 Week 8 Buccaneers at Bills BUF 24–18 99% +1
2023 Week 7 Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 20–10 88% +12
2023 Week 6 Eagles at Jets NYJ 20–14 30% +70
2023 Week 5 Bears at Commanders CHI 40–20 37% +63
2023 Week 4 Patriots at Cowboys DAL 38–3 97% +3
2023 Week 3 Texans at Jaguars HOU 37–17 32% +68
2023 Week 2 Saints at Panthers NO 20–17 90% +10
2023 Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings TB 20–17 18% +82
2022 Week 18 Chiefs at Raiders KC 31–13 99% +1
2022 Week 17 Jaguars at Texans JAX 31–3 84% +16
2022 Week 15 Steelers at Panthers PIT 24–16 81% +19
2022 Week 14 Dolphins at Chargers LAC 23–17 87% +13
2022 Week 13 Packers at Bears GB 28–19 81% +19
2022 Week 12 Giants at Cowboys DAL 28–20 49% +51
2022 Week 11 Commanders at Texans WAS 23–10 83% +17
2022 Week 10 Broncos at Titans TEN 17–10 87% +13
2022 Week 8 Raiders at Saints NO 24–0 97% +3
2022 Week 7 Steelers at Dolphins MIA 16–10 63% +37
2022 Week 6 Patriots at Browns NE 38–15 94% +6
2022 Week 5 Bengals at Ravens BAL 19–17 38% +62
2022 Week 4 Titans at Colts TEN 24–17 86% +14
2022 Week 3 Packers at Buccaneers GB 14–12 38% +62
2022 Week 2 Vikings at Eagles PHI 24–7 98% +2
2022 Week 1 Chiefs at Cardinals KC 44–21 94% +6
2021 Week 18 Packers at Lions DET 37–30 50% +50
2021 Week 17 Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 25–22 77% +23
2021 Week 16 Broncos at Raiders LV 17–13 81% +19
2021 Week 15 Vikings at Bears MIN 17–9 46% +54
2021 Week 14 Bills at Buccaneers TB 33–27 74% +26
2021 Week 13 Ravens at Steelers PIT 20–19 66% +34
2021 Week 11 Saints at Eagles PHI 40–29 59% +41
2021 Week 10 Bills at Jets BUF 45–17 96% +4
2021 Week 9 Browns at Bengals CLE 41–16 63% +37
2021 Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings DAL 20–16 94% +6
2021 Week 7 Falcons at Dolphins ATL 30–28 55% +45
2021 Week 5 Patriots at Texans NE 25–22 75% +25
2021 Week 4 Steelers at Packers GB 27–17 89% +11
2021 Week 3 Ravens at Lions BAL 19–17 49% +51
2021 Week 2 Giants at Washington WAS 30–29 61% +39
2021 Week 1 Eagles at Falcons PHI 32–6 70% +30
2020 Wild Card Buccaneers at Washington TB 31–23 91% +9
2020 Week 17 Raiders at Broncos LV 32–31 69% +31
2020 Week 16 Buccaneers at Lions TB 47–7 99% +1
2020 Week 15 Chiefs at Saints KC 32–29 68% +32
2020 Week 14 Jets at Seahawks SEA 40–3 99% +1
2020 Week 13 Colts at Texans IND 26–20 78% +22
2020 Week 12 49ers at Rams SF 23–20 42% +58
2020 Week 11 Steelers at Jaguars PIT 27–3 95% +5
2020 Week 10 Vikings at Bears MIN 19–13 90% +10
2020 Week 8 Titans at Bengals CIN 31–20 8% +92
2020 Week 7 Buccaneers at Raiders TB 45–20 45% +55
2020 Week 6 Broncos at Patriots DEN 18–12 47% +53
2020 Week 5 Colts at Browns CLE 32–23 43% +57
2020 Week 4 Seahawks at Dolphins SEA 31–23 84% +16
2020 Week 3 Lions at Cardinals DET 26–23 32% +68
2020 Week 1 Titans at Broncos TEN 16–14 91% +9
2019 Week 16 Texans at Buccaneers HOU 23–20 7% +93
2019 Week 15 Bears at Packers GB 21–13 78% +22
2019 Week 14 Giants at Eagles PHI 23–17 89% +11
2019 Week 13 Washington at Panthers WAS 29–21 70% +30
2019 Week 12 Cowboys at Patriots NE 13–9 12% +88
2019 Week 11 Bills at Dolphins BUF 37–20 96% +4
2019 Week 10 Ravens at Bengals BAL 49–13 100% 0
2019 Week 8 Giants at Lions DET 31–26 49% +51
2019 Week 7 Saints at Bears NO 36–25 99% +1
2019 Week 6 Eagles at Vikings MIN 38–20 75% +25
2019 Week 5 Rams at Seahawks SEA 30–29 44% +56
2019 Week 4 Raiders at Colts OAK 31–24 59% +41
2019 Week 3 Steelers at 49ers SF 24–20 90% +10
2019 Week 2 Jaguars at Texans HOU 13–12 86% +14
2019 Week 1 Lions at Cardinals ARI 27–27 31% +70