Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024
Buccaneers at Chargers, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Chargers 40–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.2 points to the Chargers.
An off day for the Chargers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:42 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Final
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 40 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Buccaneers about even · −6 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Chargers win 1.
- 1 TB 45 LAC 12
- 2 TB 39 LAC 13
- 3 TB 39 LAC 17
- 4 TB 24 LAC 6
- 5 TB 31 LAC 16
- 6 TB 30 LAC 17
- 7 TB 30 LAC 21
- 8 TB 26 LAC 20
- 9 TB 24 LAC 21
- 10 TB 21 LAC 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Chargers
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.51 | +0.13 | better by 0.38 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.13 | +0.12 | better by 0.25 |
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.13 | +0.05 | worse by 0.18 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.51 | +0.06 | worse by 0.45 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buccaneers win 94% of them, Chargers 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 60.0% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 22.5% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 4.6% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Buccaneers by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 24.4.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Dicker, 41 yds made · 89% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 37 yds made · 92% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 42 yds made · 87% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 43 yds made · 85% expected
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:20 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +8% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:02 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 1:50 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% TB | TB: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 13:44 | C. McLaughlin made 22-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him | +8% LAC | TB: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 5:42 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% LAC | TB: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 5:37 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Jalen McMillan), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 414 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +13% LAC | TB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 3:59 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% LAC | LAC: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 1:42 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +11% TB | TB: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Will Dissly (LAC TE), out · 0.4 pts
- Simi Fehoko (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- J.K. Dobbins (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
- Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- K.J. Britt (TB LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buccaneers 100% · Chargers 0%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 23
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 24.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Buccaneers 94% · Chargers 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · 
Buccaneers · 
Chargers
More from Week 15 2024
- Rams at 49ers LA 12–6 · replay 60% for the winner
- Ravens at Giants BAL 35–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bengals at Titans CIN 37–27 · replay 80% for the winner
- Cowboys at Panthers DAL 30–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Chiefs at Browns KC 21–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Texans HOU 20–12 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars NYJ 32–25 · replay 74% for the winner
- Commanders at Saints WAS 20–19 · replay 54% for the winner
- Bills at Lions BUF 48–42 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colts at Broncos DEN 31–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Patriots at Cardinals ARI 30–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Steelers at Eagles PHI 27–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Packers at Seahawks GB 30–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 30–12 · replay 84% for the winner
- Falcons at Raiders ATL 15–9 · replay 86% for the winner