luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · December 12, 2024–December 16

Week 15 2024: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 15 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Broncos won 31–13 and take 44% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 15 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Rams 12–6 @ 49ers 41% 62% Deserved
Buccaneers 40–17 @ Chargers 41% 94% Deserved
Cowboys 30–14 @ Panthers 43% 89% Deserved
Bills 48–42 @ Lions 43% 87% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 31–13 vs Colts 44% +56
2 Rams W 12–6 @ 49ers 62% +38
3 Commanders W 20–19 @ Saints 64% +36
4 Eagles W 27–13 vs Steelers 78% +22
5 Bengals W 37–27 @ Titans 80% +20
6 Vikings W 30–12 vs Bears 83% +17
7 Texans W 20–12 vs Dolphins 86% +14
8 Bills W 48–42 @ Lions 87% +13
9 Cardinals W 30–17 vs Patriots 87% +13
10 Jets W 32–25 @ Jaguars 87% +13
11 Falcons W 15–9 @ Raiders 87% +13
12 Cowboys W 30–14 @ Panthers 89% +11
13 Buccaneers W 40–17 @ Chargers 94% +6
14 Chiefs W 21–7 @ Browns 98% +2
15 Ravens W 35–14 @ Giants 99% +1
16 Packers W 30–13 @ Seahawks 99% +1
17 Giants L 14–35 vs Ravens 1% −1
18 Seahawks L 13–30 vs Packers 1% −1
19 Browns L 7–21 vs Chiefs 2% −2
20 Chargers L 17–40 vs Buccaneers 6% −6
21 Panthers L 14–30 vs Cowboys 11% −11
22 Raiders L 9–15 vs Falcons 13% −13
23 Jaguars L 25–32 vs Jets 13% −13
24 Patriots L 17–30 @ Cardinals 13% −13
25 Lions L 42–48 vs Bills 13% −13
26 Dolphins L 12–20 @ Texans 14% −14
27 Bears L 12–30 @ Vikings 17% −17
28 Titans L 27–37 vs Bengals 20% −20
29 Steelers L 13–27 @ Eagles 22% −22
30 Saints L 19–20 vs Commanders 36% −36
31 49ers L 6–12 vs Rams 38% −38
32 Colts L 13–31 @ Broncos 56% −56