luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Dolphins at Texans, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Dolphins 20–12 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.9 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:33 left): the Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Miami Dolphins 12
Houston Texans 20

December 15, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +29 Texans lucky · −29 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 3, Texans win 7.

  1. 1 MIA 23 HOU 6
  2. 2 MIA 24 HOU 17
  3. 3 MIA 3 HOU 0
  4. 4 MIA 13 HOU 16
  5. 5 MIA 9 HOU 15
  6. 6 MIA 10 HOU 19
  7. 7 MIA 2 HOU 13
  8. 8 MIA 14 HOU 27
  9. 9 MIA 7 HOU 24
  10. 10 MIA 10 HOU 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 29% of them, Texans 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+3.1%
Dolphins by 9–167.9%
Dolphins by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation4.3%
Texans by 1–824.0%
Texans by 9–1622.6%
Texans by 17+22.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 0.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Sanders, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Sanders, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:33 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% HOU MIA: Field goal
2 Q2 0:53 The Texans fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIA HOU: Field goal
3 Q2 0:42 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q3 12:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:37 The Dolphins converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:03 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +7% MIA HOU: Punt
7 Q4 12:44 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +11% MIA MIA: Turnover
8 Q4 10:34 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% HOU MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juice Scruggs (HOU C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kendall Lamm (MIA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 48% · Texans 52%

Final margin
Texans by 8
Luck in points
8.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 29% · Texans 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Dolphins · Texans

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