luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Dolphins at Texans, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Dolphins 20–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:17 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Miami Dolphins 12
Houston Texans 20

December 15, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +14 Texans about even · −14 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Texans win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 10 HOU 3
  2. 2 MIA 10 HOU 13
  3. 3 MIA 20 HOU 24
  4. 4 MIA 19 HOU 27
  5. 5 MIA 12 HOU 22
  6. 6 MIA 17 HOU 30
  7. 7 MIA 3 HOU 19
  8. 8 MIA 13 HOU 31
  9. 9 MIA 15 HOU 37
  10. 10 MIA 13 HOU 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 14% of them, Texans 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.7%
Dolphins by 9–163.6%
Dolphins by 1–89.1%
Level after regulation1.8%
Texans by 1–819.7%
Texans by 9–1626.8%
Texans by 17+38.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 8, without the luck Texans by 5.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Sanders, 55 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Sanders, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 8 for 64 yards, Texans 7 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:09 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Channing Tindall), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 6:59 Encroachment on the Texans (Folorunso Fatukasi), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 12:59 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 9 yards, wiping out the play +6% HOU +2.0 pts
Q2 10:07 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Mario Edwards), 15 yards +2% MIA +0.6 pts
Q2 8:00 Encroachment on the Dolphins (Benito Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 4:07 Low Block on the Texans (Eric Murray), 15 yards +6% MIA +1.1 pts
Q2 2:58 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 0:42 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +7% HOU +1.4 pts
Q2 0:38 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Danielle Hunter), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% MIA +0.4 pts
Q3 12:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play +15% HOU +7.4 pts
Q3 9:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Calen Bullock), 15 yards +2% MIA +1.5 pts
Q3 7:27 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +4% HOU +1.9 pts
Q3 4:40 Defensive Offside on the Texans (M.J. Stewart), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.2 pts
Q4 7:50 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIA +1.8 pts
Q4 4:20 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:40 J. Sanders made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 61 of 86 from 45+ before +7% MIA MIA: Turnover
2 Q2 9:33 The Dolphins fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU MIA: Field goal
3 Q2 2:29 The Dolphins got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +7% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 Q2 0:53 The Texans fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIA HOU: Field goal
5 Q2 0:42 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
6 Q3 12:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q3 4:37 The Dolphins converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:44 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% MIA MIA: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juice Scruggs (HOU C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kendall Lamm (MIA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 20% · Texans 80%

Final margin
Texans by 8
Luck in points
2.9 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 14% · Texans 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Dolphins · Texans

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