luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Bengals at Titans, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Titans 37–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.6 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:35 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 37
Tennessee Titans 27

December 15, 2024 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −6

Luck index +20 Bengals about even · −20 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 8, Titans win 2.

  1. 1 CIN 31 TEN 3
  2. 2 CIN 27 TEN 6
  3. 3 CIN 30 TEN 13
  4. 4 CIN 36 TEN 23
  5. 5 CIN 27 TEN 17
  6. 6 CIN 28 TEN 21
  7. 7 CIN 27 TEN 21
  8. 8 CIN 19 TEN 17
  9. 9 CIN 17 TEN 20
  10. 10 CIN 13 TEN 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 80% of them, Titans 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+31.6%
Bengals by 9–1621.3%
Bengals by 1–826.8%
Level after regulation2.2%
Titans by 1–810.5%
Titans by 9–165.4%
Titans by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 11.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:09 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% CIN TEN: Turnover
3 Q2 2:08 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 4257 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +15% CIN TEN: Turnover
4 Q2 1:18 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Bengals (Andrei Iosivas), 6 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1144 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +13% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:12 The Titans were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% CIN TEN: End of half
6 Q2 0:06 C. York made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +12% TEN CIN: Turnover
7 Q3 14:22 Low Block on the Titans, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CIN CIN: Turnover
8 Q3 7:35 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +16% CIN TEN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jerome Baker (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Roger McCreary (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Evan McPherson (CIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Ford (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 95% · Titans 5%

Final margin
Bengals by 10
Luck in points
1.5 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 11.5
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 80% · Titans 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Bengals · Titans

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