luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · October 30, 2025

Ravens at Dolphins, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Dolphins 28–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:03 left): Tripping on the Dolphins (Ollie Gordon), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 28
Miami Dolphins 6

October 30, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +10 Ravens about even · −10 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Dolphins win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 40 MIA 10
  2. 2 BAL 36 MIA 12
  3. 3 BAL 30 MIA 10
  4. 4 BAL 34 MIA 17
  5. 5 BAL 27 MIA 13
  6. 6 BAL 22 MIA 10
  7. 7 BAL 26 MIA 17
  8. 8 BAL 33 MIA 27
  9. 9 BAL 17 MIA 14
  10. 10 BAL 27 MIA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 90% of them, Dolphins 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+50.9%
Ravens by 9–1621.1%
Ravens by 1–816.7%
Level after regulation1.7%
Dolphins by 1–86.5%
Dolphins by 9–162.5%
Dolphins by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 7.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • R. Patterson, 35 yds missed · 93% expected
  • R. Patterson, 43 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:46 The Dolphins fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BAL MIA: Missed field goal
2 Q1 8:30 The Ravens converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:24 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
4 Q1 2:40 R. Patterson missed 35-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +10% BAL MIA: Punt
5 Q1 0:03 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:03 Tripping on the Dolphins (Ollie Gordon), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 138 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +14% BAL BAL: Punt
7 Q2 9:09 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Ravens (Rashod Bateman), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2608 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +6% MIA BAL: Punt
8 Q2 1:08 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +5% BAL MIA: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Julian Hill (MIA TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (MIA S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 86% · Dolphins 14%

Final margin
Ravens by 22
Luck in points
14.1 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 90% · Dolphins 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Ravens · Dolphins

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