luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 30, 2025

Ravens at Dolphins, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Dolphins 28–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:03 left): Tripping on the Dolphins (Ollie Gordon), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 28
Miami Dolphins 6

October 30, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +5 Ravens about even · −5 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Dolphins win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 38 MIA 3
  2. 2 BAL 39 MIA 10
  3. 3 BAL 24 MIA 0
  4. 4 BAL 27 MIA 6
  5. 5 BAL 42 MIA 24
  6. 6 BAL 20 MIA 5
  7. 7 BAL 27 MIA 16
  8. 8 BAL 20 MIA 10
  9. 9 BAL 26 MIA 20
  10. 10 BAL 26 MIA 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 95% of them, Dolphins 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+67.5%
Ravens by 9–1618.7%
Ravens by 1–89.2%
Level after regulation0.7%
Dolphins by 1–83.1%
Dolphins by 9–160.9%
Dolphins by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.7 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 22, without the luck Ravens by 9.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • R. Patterson, 35 yds missed · 93% expected
  • R. Patterson, 43 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 5 for 56 yards, Dolphins 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:54 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +1.2 pts
Q2 12:03 Tripping on the Dolphins (Ollie Gordon), 15 yards, wiping out the play +14% BAL +5.1 pts
Q2 9:09 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Ravens (Rashod Bateman), 13 yards +2% MIA +1.2 pts
Q2 9:05 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Keondre Jackson), 10 yards +2% MIA +0.9 pts
Q2 5:12 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q3 8:09 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins (Tanner Conner), 10 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 6:34 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Keondre Jackson), 10 yards +1% MIA +0.9 pts
Q4 12:27 Intentional Grounding on the Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa), 10 yards 0% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 11:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 11 yards 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 6:44 Illegal Blindside Block on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 12 yards 0% MIA +1.0 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:11 R. Patterson made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 15 of 21 from 45+ before +5% MIA MIA: Turnover
2 Q1 9:46 The Dolphins fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BAL MIA: Missed field goal
3 Q1 8:30 The Ravens converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:24 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
5 Q1 2:40 R. Patterson missed a 35-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +10% BAL MIA: Punt
6 Q2 12:03 Tripping on the Dolphins (Ollie Gordon), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 138 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +14% BAL BAL: Punt
7 Q2 1:11 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +5% BAL MIA: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 1:08 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +5% BAL MIA: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Julian Hill (MIA TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (MIA S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 95% · Dolphins 5%

Final margin
Ravens by 22
Luck in points
12.7 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 9.3
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 95% · Dolphins 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Ravens · Dolphins

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