luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Seahawks at Commanders, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Commanders 38–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:55 left): the Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 17, worth 12 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 38
Washington Commanders 14

November 2, 2025 · FedExField · Closing line: Seahawks −2.5

Luck index +18 Seahawks about even · −18 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Commanders win 2.

  1. 1 SEA 41 WAS 14
  2. 2 SEA 33 WAS 13
  3. 3 SEA 30 WAS 14
  4. 4 SEA 44 WAS 31
  5. 5 SEA 34 WAS 24
  6. 6 SEA 34 WAS 27
  7. 7 SEA 28 WAS 24
  8. 8 SEA 33 WAS 31
  9. 9 SEA 24 WAS 27
  10. 10 SEA 14 WAS 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 82% of them, Commanders 18%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+34.1%
Seahawks by 9–1623.7%
Seahawks by 1–824.1%
Level after regulation1.1%
Commanders by 1–810.3%
Commanders by 9–165.0%
Commanders by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 13.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:30 Chop Block on the Seahawks (Robbie Ouzts), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 71 snaps before, position avg 1 per 450 +5% WAS WAS: Turnover
2 Q1 7:16 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedThe Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:35 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:09 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% SEA WAS: Turnover
5 Q2 15:00 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q2 13:14 Face Mask on the Commanders, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:55 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% SEA WAS: Touchdown
8 Q2 8:57 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Will Harris (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (SEA WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 99% · Commanders 1%

Final margin
Seahawks by 24
Luck in points
10.7 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 13.3
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 82% · Commanders 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Seahawks · Commanders

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