luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Broncos at Texans, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Texans 18–15, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:18 left): the Broncos converted 3rd & 11, worth 19 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 18
Houston Texans 15

November 2, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −1.5

Luck index +28 Broncos lucky · −28 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 7, Texans win 3.

  1. 1 DEN 41 HOU 13
  2. 2 DEN 20 HOU 0
  3. 3 DEN 23 HOU 6
  4. 4 DEN 38 HOU 27
  5. 5 DEN 20 HOU 12
  6. 6 DEN 23 HOU 17
  7. 7 DEN 35 HOU 33
  8. 8 DEN 13 HOU 16
  9. 9 DEN 20 HOU 27
  10. 10 DEN 10 HOU 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 72% of them, Texans 28%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+26.8%
Broncos by 9–1620.3%
Broncos by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation3.9%
Texans by 1–814.2%
Texans by 9–168.0%
Texans by 17+4.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Texans: the final margin was Broncos by 3, without the luck Broncos by 4.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
  • W. Lutz, 51 yds blocked · 71% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • W. Lutz, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 4 for 41 yards, Texans 4 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:51 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Brandon Jones), 1 yard +1% HOU +0.4 pts
Q1 0:21 False Start on the Texans, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +2.0 pts
Q2 8:41 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Xavier Hutchinson), 10 yards +5% DEN +1.7 pts
Q2 4:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Brandon Jones), 15 yards +7% HOU +1.5 pts
Q3 7:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards +3% HOU +1.4 pts
Q4 11:02 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.6 pts
Q4 9:57 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (JL Skinner), 10 yards +6% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 9:46 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Xavier Hutchinson), 10 yards +5% DEN +0.9 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:14 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
2 Q1 9:31 The Texans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +9% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
3 Q1 4:34 W. Lutz had a 51-yard field goal blockedKicks · 71% expected for him, 39 of 56 from 45+ before +10% HOU DEN: Punt
4 Q2 5:47 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% DEN DEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:28 The Broncos’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% DEN DEN: Punt
6 Q4 11:10 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +9% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q4 10:09 The Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws +10% DEN DEN: Punt
8 Q4 2:18 The Broncos converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +19% DEN DEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ben Powers (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 77% · Texans 23%

Final margin
Broncos by 3
Luck in points
1.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 72% · Texans 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Broncos · Texans

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