luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · November 3, 2025

Cardinals at Cowboys, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Cowboys 27–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Cowboys: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:04 left): Blocked punt by the Cowboys, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 27
Dallas Cowboys 17

November 3, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +23 Cardinals about even · −23 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 8, Cowboys win 2.

  1. 1 ARI 44 DAL 17
  2. 2 ARI 36 DAL 16
  3. 3 ARI 22 DAL 7
  4. 4 ARI 20 DAL 9
  5. 5 ARI 30 DAL 21
  6. 6 ARI 23 DAL 17
  7. 7 ARI 26 DAL 22
  8. 8 ARI 26 DAL 24
  9. 9 ARI 14 DAL 17
  10. 10 ARI 10 DAL 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cowboys

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.

33 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.30 +0.10 better by 0.20
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.03 +0.09 better by 0.12
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained −0.03 +0.13 worse by 0.15
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.30 +0.19 worse by 0.11

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 77% of them, Cowboys 23%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+26.9%
Cardinals by 9–1622.1%
Cardinals by 1–827.6%
Level after regulation2.9%
Cowboys by 1–812.6%
Cowboys by 9–165.6%
Cowboys by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.5 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 10, without the luck Cowboys by 4.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 68 yds missed · 30% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 26 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Ryland, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 2 for 10 yards, Cowboys 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:36 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 5 yards +4% ARI +1.1 pts
Q1 2:49 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% ARI +2.5 pts
Q1 2:11 False Start on the Cowboys (C.J. Goodwin), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.3 pts
Q2 7:12 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% ARI +1.7 pts
Q3 13:21 Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.7 pts
Q4 12:59 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Caelen Carson), 10 yards +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 7:49 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q4 6:52 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 15 yards +2% ARI +0.9 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:41 J. Ferguson dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 226 catchable balls before this +7% ARI DAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 10:37 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% ARI DAL: Punt
3 Q1 9:47 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% ARI ARI: Field goal
4 Q1 8:48 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q1 6:03 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
6 Q1 2:49 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q2 7:12 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2561 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +7% ARI ARI: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 4:04 Blocked punt by the CowboysSpecial teams +16% DAL DAL: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Hooker (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Sanborn (DAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by j.brissett · 3.1 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 27% · Cowboys 73%

Final margin
Cardinals by 10
Luck in points
14.5 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 77% · Cowboys 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Cardinals · Cowboys

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