luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · November 3, 2025

Cardinals at Cowboys, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Cowboys 27–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 1.6 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:04 left): Blocked punt by the Cowboys, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 27
Dallas Cowboys 17

November 3, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +39 Cardinals lucky · −39 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Cowboys win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 28 DAL 7
  2. 2 ARI 28 DAL 13
  3. 3 ARI 31 DAL 20
  4. 4 ARI 22 DAL 14
  5. 5 ARI 24 DAL 19
  6. 6 ARI 24 DAL 21
  7. 7 ARI 16 DAL 19
  8. 8 ARI 10 DAL 17
  9. 9 ARI 10 DAL 20
  10. 10 ARI 17 DAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 61% of them, Cowboys 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+13.6%
Cardinals by 9–1617.9%
Cardinals by 1–827.7%
Level after regulation2.8%
Cowboys by 1–818.4%
Cowboys by 9–1613.4%
Cowboys by 17+6.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 9.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 68 yds missed · 62% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 26 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Ryland, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:41 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedJ. Ferguson dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 226 catchable balls before this +10% ARI DAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 10:37 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% ARI DAL: Punt
3 Q1 8:48 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
4 Q1 2:49 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:12 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2561 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +7% ARI ARI: Opp touchdown
6 Q2 6:40 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ARI DAL: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 4:04 Blocked punt by the CowboysSpecial teams +16% DAL DAL: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 4:46 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% ARI DAL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Hooker (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Sanborn (DAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by j.brissett · 3.1 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 9% · Cowboys 91%

Final margin
Cardinals by 10
Luck in points
19.3 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 9.3
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 61% · Cowboys 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Cardinals · Cowboys

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