luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Panthers at Packers, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Packers 16–13, but the Packers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): R. Fitzgerald made 49-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 16
Green Bay Packers 13

November 2, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −12.5

Luck index +73 Panthers very lucky · −73 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Packers win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 17 GB 3
  2. 2 CAR 7 GB 0
  3. 3 CAR 17 GB 14
  4. 4 CAR 23 GB 26
  5. 5 CAR 17 GB 21
  6. 6 CAR 10 GB 17
  7. 7 CAR 16 GB 26
  8. 8 CAR 21 GB 34
  9. 9 CAR 3 GB 21
  10. 10 CAR 7 GB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 27% of them, Packers 73%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+1.7%
Panthers by 9–165.6%
Panthers by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation6.3%
Packers by 1–828.3%
Packers by 9–1622.5%
Packers by 17+20.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 1.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 49 yds made · 69% expected
  • B. McManus, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 43 yds missed · 80% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 49 yds made · 70% expected
  • Extra point missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:00 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% GB CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:08 The Packers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% GB GB: Field goal
3 Q3 10:38 B. McManus missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +13% CAR GB: Turnover
4 Q3 1:28 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% GB GB: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 11:45 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +13% CAR GB: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 5:50 The Packers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:35 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +12% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:01 R. Fitzgerald made 49-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 5 of 6 from 45+ before +26% CAR –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dontayvion Wicks (GB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Havrisik (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lukas Van Ness (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Taylor Moton (CAR T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cade Mays (CAR C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 51% · Packers 49%

Final margin
Panthers by 3
Luck in points
1.8 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 27% · Packers 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Panthers · Packers

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