luckadjusted

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Jets, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 45–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.2 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Bills were 83% favorites.

Final

Buffalo Bills 45
New York Jets 17

November 14, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bills −13

Luck index +4 Bills about even · −4 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 BUF 50 NYJ 10
  2. 2 BUF 47 NYJ 16
  3. 3 BUF 42 NYJ 16
  4. 4 BUF 49 NYJ 27
  5. 5 BUF 38 NYJ 20
  6. 6 BUF 26 NYJ 10
  7. 7 BUF 39 NYJ 26
  8. 8 BUF 40 NYJ 30
  9. 9 BUF 26 NYJ 19
  10. 10 BUF 30 NYJ 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 96% of them, Jets 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+74.3%
Bills by 9–1614.5%
Bills by 1–87.4%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jets by 1–82.2%
Jets by 9–160.9%
Jets by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 31.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 48 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:22 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% BUF NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 11:34 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
3 Q1 9:24 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% BUF NYJ: Punt
4 Q1 3:25 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% BUF BUF: Punt
5 Q1 2:06 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% BUF BUF: Punt
7 Q2 2:00 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% BUF NYJ: Field goal
8 Q2 0:57 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Maye (NYJ FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Huff (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Kroft (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tremaine Edmunds (BUF LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Star Lotulelei (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Bills by 28
Luck in points
3.9 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 31.9
Replay with same day's form
Bills 96% · Jets 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Bills · Jets

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