luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Colts, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Jaguars 23–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:02 left): the Jaguars fumbled and the Colts recovered, worth 12 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Indianapolis Colts 23

November 14, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −10.5

Luck index +33 Colts lucky · −33 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Colts win 7.

  1. 1 JAX 33 IND 13
  2. 2 JAX 21 IND 12
  3. 3 JAX 16 IND 13
  4. 4 JAX 24 IND 26
  5. 5 JAX 17 IND 21
  6. 6 JAX 24 IND 31
  7. 7 JAX 9 IND 19
  8. 8 JAX 24 IND 39
  9. 9 JAX 10 IND 30
  10. 10 JAX 7 IND 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 33% of them, Colts 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+5.6%
Jaguars by 9–168.8%
Jaguars by 1–815.7%
Level after regulation3.2%
Colts by 1–823.8%
Colts by 9–1620.2%
Colts by 17+22.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 6, without the luck Colts by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Badgley, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Wright, 56 yds made · 68% expected
  • M. Wright, 51 yds missed · 74% expected
  • M. Badgley, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 8 for 79 yards, Colts 7 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:52 False Start on the Jaguars (Chris Manhertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q1 8:23 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Andre Cisco), 9 yards +1% IND +0.8 pts
Q1 0:59 False Start on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.4 pts
Q2 13:48 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% JAX +3.7 pts
Q2 10:26 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Chris Manhertz), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% IND +1.8 pts
Q2 3:13 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 15 yards +3% IND +1.8 pts
Q2 2:05 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.7 pts
Q3 13:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 12 yards +3% JAX +1.2 pts
Q3 12:20 Illegal Blindside Block on the Jaguars (Chris Manhertz), 15 yards +3% IND +1.3 pts
Q3 7:54 False Start on the Jaguars (Dan Arnold), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q3 7:28 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% IND +1.9 pts
Q3 1:20 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q4 13:40 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 5 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 8:35 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Chris Claybrooks), 10 yards +7% IND +0.9 pts
Q4 2:43 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% JAX +1.7 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:03 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% IND IND: Field goal
2 Q1 8:32 Blocked punt by the ColtsSpecial teams +12% IND IND: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 13:48 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q3 6:20 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% JAX JAX: Punt
5 Q4 8:35 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Chris Claybrooks), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 781 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q4 2:56 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q4 2:43 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% JAX JAX: Turnover
8 Q4 1:02 The Jaguars fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier Rhodes (IND CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Khari Willis (IND SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rodrigo Blankenship (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tre Herndon (JAX CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 33% · Colts 67%

Final margin
Colts by 6
Luck in points
3.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 33% · Colts 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Jaguars · Colts

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