luckadjusted

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Colts, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Jaguars 23–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:02 left): the Jaguars fumbled and the Colts recovered, worth 12 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Indianapolis Colts 23

November 14, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −10.5

Luck index +29 Colts lucky · −29 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Colts win 7.

  1. 1 JAX 30 IND 10
  2. 2 JAX 40 IND 30
  3. 3 JAX 23 IND 19
  4. 4 JAX 10 IND 13
  5. 5 JAX 19 IND 24
  6. 6 JAX 19 IND 27
  7. 7 JAX 13 IND 25
  8. 8 JAX 5 IND 20
  9. 9 JAX 9 IND 28
  10. 10 JAX 7 IND 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 29% of them, Colts 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+5.2%
Jaguars by 9–168.1%
Jaguars by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation3.1%
Colts by 1–823.8%
Colts by 9–1620.3%
Colts by 17+24.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 2.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Badgley, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Wright, 56 yds made · 67% expected
  • M. Wright, 51 yds missed · 75% expected
  • M. Badgley, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:01 M. Badgley made 24-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +6% JAX IND: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 8:32 Blocked punt by the ColtsSpecial teams +12% IND IND: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 13:48 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q3 6:20 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% JAX JAX: Punt
5 Q4 9:07 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% JAX IND: Punt
6 Q4 8:35 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Chris Claybrooks), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 781 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q4 2:56 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q4 1:02 The Jaguars fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier Rhodes (IND CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Khari Willis (IND SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rodrigo Blankenship (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tre Herndon (JAX CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 38% · Colts 62%

Final margin
Colts by 6
Luck in points
3.2 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 29% · Colts 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Jaguars · Colts

More from Week 10 2021