luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2024 · January 11, 2025

Steelers at Ravens, Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Steelers 28–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:41 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 14
Baltimore Ravens 28

January 11, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9.5

Luck index +3 Ravens about even · −3 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 PIT 34 BAL 37
  2. 2 PIT 28 BAL 34
  3. 3 PIT 13 BAL 21
  4. 4 PIT 16 BAL 27
  5. 5 PIT 13 BAL 27
  6. 6 PIT 14 BAL 31
  7. 7 PIT 14 BAL 33
  8. 8 PIT 26 BAL 49
  9. 9 PIT 3 BAL 30
  10. 10 PIT 13 BAL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 3% of them, Ravens 97%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.2%
Steelers by 9–160.8%
Steelers by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
Ravens by 1–89.7%
Ravens by 9–1622.8%
Ravens by 17+63.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.9 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 14, without the luck Ravens by 9.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Steelers 7 for 41 yards, Ravens 3 for 14 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:25 False Start on the Ravens, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q1 2:44 Illegal Touch Kick on the Steelers (James Pierre), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q2 7:36 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q2 7:24 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 5 yards +2% BAL +0.6 pts
Q2 2:41 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% BAL +3.4 pts
Q3 3:24 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 2:27 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 10:59 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +2.2 pts
Q4 7:19 False Start on the Steelers (Najee Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q4 3:17 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 6 yards, wiping out the play 0% PIT +0.2 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 The Steelers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +2% PIT PIT: Punt
2 Q1 12:47 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% BAL PIT: Punt
3 Q1 12:08 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 10:37 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +2% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:50 The Ravens converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q1 1:27 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +3% BAL BAL: Punt
7 Q2 12:57 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +3% BAL PIT: Punt
8 Q2 2:41 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2653 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zay Flowers (BAL WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Mason McCormick (PIT G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 2% · Ravens 98%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
4.9 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 9.1
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 3% · Ravens 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2024 games · Steelers · Ravens

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