luckadjusted

Wild Card 2024 · January 11, 2025

Steelers at Ravens, Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Steelers 28–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:41 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 14
Baltimore Ravens 28

January 11, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9.5

Luck index +6 Ravens about even · −6 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 PIT 23 BAL 17
  2. 2 PIT 27 BAL 30
  3. 3 PIT 17 BAL 21
  4. 4 PIT 3 BAL 10
  5. 5 PIT 17 BAL 27
  6. 6 PIT 21 BAL 34
  7. 7 PIT 20 BAL 37
  8. 8 PIT 24 BAL 44
  9. 9 PIT 9 BAL 34
  10. 10 PIT 20 BAL 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 6% of them, Ravens 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.1%
Steelers by 9–161.4%
Steelers by 1–83.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Ravens by 1–814.6%
Ravens by 9–1624.9%
Ravens by 17+54.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 7.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 P. Freiermuth dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 182 catchable balls before this +3% BAL PIT: Punt
2 Q1 14:18 The Steelers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +2% PIT PIT: Punt
3 Q1 12:47 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% BAL PIT: Punt
4 Q1 12:08 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:50 The Ravens converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q1 1:27 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% BAL BAL: Punt
7 Q2 12:57 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +3% BAL PIT: Punt
8 Q2 2:41 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2653 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zay Flowers (BAL WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Mason McCormick (PIT G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 11% · Ravens 89%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
7.0 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 6% · Ravens 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2024 games · Steelers · Ravens

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